SpaceX's IPO Lockup Starts Expiring in August. Here's Why the Next Wave of Sellers Could Be the Real Test.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) can't seem to catch a break. On Thursday, the company aborted the second launch attempt of its upgraded Starship rocket moments after ignition, hours after the stock had slid 3% to about $131 -- an all-time low for its brief public life, and below the $135 price at which it went public in June, in an initial public offering (IPO) that raised $85.7 billion.

But a scrubbed launch is a passing headline. The heavier weight on the stock is a calendar item. SpaceX's IPO lockup releases begin in August, and the biggest early tranche could put more shares on the market than the IPO itself did.

Here's how the supply wave works, and what it means for anyone eyeing the beaten-down stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

A supply wave, on a schedule

SpaceX's June 12 IPO put less than 5% of the company's roughly 13.2 billion shares into public hands. Nearly everything else is locked up, for now.

The earnings-linked release could come first. Under the lockup terms in SpaceX's IPO prospectus, up to 911.5 million shares become sellable on the second full trading day after the company's first earnings report as a public company (a report the company hasn't formally scheduled yet). That single tranche alone is bigger than the entire IPO, and it is worth more than $115 billion at the current share price.

Another 455.8 million shares would be released alongside them if the stock closes at least 30% above its IPO price, or $175.50, on five of the 10 trading days running into the report. At about $131 as of this writing, that trigger is nowhere in sight.

And the calendar keeps going. Smaller slices, each about 7% of the shares subject to the standard lockup, unlock roughly every two to three weeks from late August through late October. Another 28% becomes sellable after the company's third-quarter report, and the standard lockup winds down entirely in early December. Elon Musk's own shares stay locked until next June.

What the supply wave means for buyers

Lockup expirations matter most when a stock is already weak, because they add supply exactly when demand is shaky. SpaceX fits the description. Shares have fallen about 42% from their post-IPO peak of $225.64.

And the fundamentals give potential sellers reasons. The company's Starlink-driven connectivity segment is a standout. It generated $11.4 billion of revenue and $4.4 billion of operating income in 2025, with segment operating income more than doubling year over year, and it added $3.3 billion of revenue in the first quarter of 2026. But the company's newly acquired artificial intelligence (AI) segment lost $6.4 billion from operations in 2025, and it posted a $2.5 billion operating loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone, and the space segment itself lost money in both periods, too.

Even at its lows, meanwhile, SpaceX carries a market value of about $1.7 trillion. That is nearly 90 times the revenue the business generated over the past 12 months, for a company losing billions of dollars a year.

There's also precedent for lockup pain. Meta Platforms, back when it was known as Facebook, saw its first post-IPO lockup expire in August 2012, freeing about 271 million shares. The stock fell more than 6% that day to what was then an all-time low, roughly half its IPO price. (Facebook, it's worth remembering, turned out fine.)

Of course, there's a counterargument: everyone can see this coming. The lockup schedule has been public since the prospectus, and some of the stock's roughly 35% slide over the past month likely reflects investors selling ahead of the supply. Insiders don't have to sell, either. And with shares at an all-time low, some may prefer to wait.

Still, the setup argues for patience. That first release will show where demand for SpaceX shares actually meets supply, and the tranches that follow will keep testing it into December. If the stock absorbs that first wave without breaking to new lows, that itself could be evidence the selling pressure is already priced in. Investors who believe in the long-term story of Starship, Starlink, and Musk's AI ambitions will get plenty of information over the next several months -- and, quite possibly, plenty of chances to buy.

I wouldn't buy the stock in front of that wave. Personally, I'm content to let the lockups play out before I'd even consider it. The stock's valuation simply looks too expensive anyway, in my opinion.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.