Prediction: $10,000 Invested in SpaceX Today Could Be Worth This Much by September

After a wild first month, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), better known as SpaceX, is now below its IPO price of $135, and well under its initial trading price of $150. As of mid-afternoon Thursday, shares were changing hands for around $131. And from the peak of $225.64 it hit in its first week on the market, SpaceX is down 42%. Essentially, every investor who bought in after the IPO is now underwater.

For investors considering taking advantage of this opportunity to buy SpaceX stock for less than its IPO price, the question is where it might head from here. In the near term, that answer could depend significantly on a couple of major events coming in August. Let's review those upcoming catalysts, and consider what a $10,000 investment made today might be worth after the dust settles.

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What's coming up for SpaceX

SpaceX hasn't announced a date for its first earnings report as a public company yet, but it's expected to happen on or around Aug. 6. SpaceX's financials have been a mixed bag so far. Its connectivity segment, which primarily consists of its Starlink satellite broadband unit, has been the bright spot. Of the company's $4.7 billion in Q1 revenue, connectivity accounted for $3.3 billion, and it's SpaceX's only profitable segment right now.

The first post-IPO earnings report will give investors a chance to see how revenue is growing and whether SpaceX is getting closer to profitability. If revenue and income make sizable jumps, that could start to bring SpaceX's valuation into more reasonable territory.

The other reason August will be a critical month for SpaceX is that it's when insiders will be able to start selling their shares. The space company put staggered lock-up periods in place for insiders and private stakeholders. These early shareholders will be permitted to sell up to 20% of their stock starting on the second trading day after its first post-IPO earnings report. They'll be able to sell an additional 10% if SpaceX stock trades at 30% or more above its IPO price for at least five of the 10 trading days before its earnings release. That seems unlikely at the moment, but considering how volatile SpaceX has been, it's still a possibility.

The impact of the earnings report will depend on the numbers, but the additional shares could create selling pressure regardless, as insiders will likely start to take some of their profits.

What $10,000 invested in SpaceX could turn into by September

SpaceX stock could be due for more difficulties in the near term. Even after its recent dip, it still trades at about 92 times last year's sales. It will most likely still look richly valued after its next earnings report, more shares will be hitting the market, and the hype that led to its initial pop seems to have worn off.

I don't think SpaceX stock will crash, but I expect it to continue losing value and trade in the $110 to $120 range by September. If you were to invest $10,000 in SpaceX at around $131 a share, in six weeks, your investment would be worth roughly $8,400 to $9,200 if this prediction proves accurate. Given the risks, it may be wise to wait for SpaceX's valuation to come down even further before investing.

Lyle Daly has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.