Predicting Where SpaceX Is Headed by the End of 2026

The largest IPO in history is doing what IPOs tend to do: underperform in the short term. In the first three to five years after a stock enters the public market, most fail to deliver positive returns to investors. With so much media attention on Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), investors wondered if this company would buck that trend.

My prediction? It's highly unlikely. SpaceX will close the year closer to $100 per share than $200.

I think SpaceX is a terrific, innovative company. Still, the valuation simply does not make sense, and the company's insiders will take their profits off the table as soon as lockup periods end (which is very soon), leaving the retail investors holding the proverbial bag for quite some time.

An unsustainable valuation

By almost any measure, SpaceX is overly expensive. Right now, the stock is trading nearly 100 times the company's sales. SpaceX's revenue is growing, but not fast enough to justify the valuation. The company generated just $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025.

After its IPO, SpaceX raised another $25 billion in investment-grade bonds. Musk's company is spending money and posting net losses. Profitability isn't close.

Of course, people are investing in SpaceX for its long-term potential, and that's completely understandable. Between its industry-leading rocket launch business and Starlink's scalability, SpaceX has the opportunity to grow immensely.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX is also making strategic acquisitions to boost revenue, most recently Anysphere for $60 billion. Anysphere is the parent company of the highly regarded AI coding platform Cursor.

There's real execution risk involved with SpaceX, and the company's sky-high valuation leaves very little room for mistakes, delays, or failures. If the company were valued at just $1 trillion, I could perhaps justify paying a premium for shares. At a nearly $2 trillion market cap, though, there's limited upside.

I'm not fully bearish on SpaceX. I am in awe of the brilliant people who work at the company and of what they've achieved on a technical level. I simply don't see a scenario beyond pure Reddit-style hype that would push the stock above its $135-per-share debut price by the end of the year.

I see the stock landing somewhere around $100 per share as much more likely, given that insiders are selling shares and SpaceX continues to post net losses.

An alternative for space-enthused investors

Competitors such as Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) are a more compelling buy in the space industry at the moment. Rocket Lab has an enormous $2 billion backlog and is prepared to challenge SpaceX in the medium-lift launch market with its Neutron rocket. Rocket Lab also trades at a premium, but much less so than SpaceX.

Catie Hogan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Reddit and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.