ExxonMobil Is Poised for a Major Transformation by 2040

Make no mistake: ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) remains the epitome of "big oil." The energy giant is one of the world's largest integrated oil and gas companies, with exploration projects, refineries, and retail energy operations worldwide.

However, while the "green wave" investing trend has lost momentum in recent years, don't assume ExxonMobil has completely abandoned its efforts to capitalize on it. Alongside efforts to maximize the profitability of its legacy business through measures like cost-cutting and a focus on high-return exploration opportunities, ExxonMobil has continued to commit billions to its "clean energy" projects.

Although these projects don't contribute much to the bottom line yet, in a little over a decade, they could become a secondary source of profitability for this blue chip dividend stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

ExxonMobil's lean, mean, hydrocarbon cash machine

ExxonMobil has prioritized maximizing profitability in its legacy business. Why? For starters, the company wants to maintain its dividend growth track record. With 43 years of consecutive annual dividend growth under its belt, it's less than a decade away from becoming one of the Dividend Kings, or companies with over 50 years of consecutive dividend growth.

Alongside growing the dividend, which currently gives the stock a 2.9% forward yield, ExxonMobil also remains committed to another type of "return of capital" activity: share repurchases. Management is currently targeting $20 billion in annual buybacks. That's around 3.3% of the company's current market capitalization.

As share repurchases help increase a stock's underlying per-share value over time, ExxonMobil is, in essence, trying to maintain a mid-single-digit return baseline. Besides the return of capital, the company is trying to, as CEO Darren Woods recently put it, "produce more oil for less money," with another objective in mind. That would be to produce greater cash flow, not only to support dividend and buyback growth, but to fund ExxonMobil's "green pivot" as well.

The longer-term payoff

ExxonMobil's near-term objective for its efficiency efforts is to increase annual earnings and cash flow by $25 billion and $35 billion, respectively, compared with 2024 levels. Management anticipates hitting this goal by 2030. The company is ramping up profitability to sustain earnings and dividend growth and spur further price appreciation.

Over a longer time horizon, however, the company is also putting a lot of this cash into its "green wave projects." As part of its "2030 Plan," unveiled last December, ExxonMobil also announced plans to invest $20 billion in what it calls its "lower-emission investments" between 2025 and 2030, with 60% of this investment focused on reducing emissions for third-party customers. This includes not only investment in ExxonMobil's carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, but also in its Proxxima resin systems project, and in its budding low-emissions hydrogen and domestically sourced lithium.

Make no mistake. ExxonMobil isn't trying to "green" up its image by investing heavily in the business. Alongside sustainability, the oil and gas giant also sees financial opportunity. As the company's management believes these businesses could generate up to $13 billion in additional earnings by 2040, consider ExxonMobil's "green wave" wager as a secondary catalyst for the stock in the long term.

In short, buy this energy stock for the 2.9% dividend and 2030 transformation today -- and hold it for the next big transformation down the road.

Thomas Niel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.