Should You Buy Redwire Stock After It Just Crashed 61%?

Redwire (NYSE: RDW), a producer of space mission components, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on Sept. 3, 2021. Its stock opened at $11.07, set a record high of $25.90 on May 28, 2026, but now trades at $10.18 per share.

Redwire initially impressed investors with its robust revenue growth, but some concerns about its dilution, widening losses, and accounting accuracy crushed its stock. Does that 61% pullback from its all-time high represent a buying opportunity or a bright red flag?

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How fast is Redwire growing?

Redwire develops critical navigation, power, and 3D-printing components for satellites, space stations, and other spacecraft. It also builds military drones and custom components for missile defense and military communications systems. Its customers include NASA, the Department of Defense, and large commercial space contractors.

In 2025, Redwire's revenue rose 10% to $335 million, but its net loss nearly doubled from $114 million to $227 million. Those widening losses were caused by higher estimated project completion costs, goodwill impairment charges from its recent acquisitions, increased spending on its military drone projects, and higher stock-based compensation expenses.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Redwire's revenue to grow at a 26% CAGR to $664 million as it narrows its net loss to $43 million. That growth should be driven by the construction of orbital data centers, more low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, new lunar missions, and the development of more sophisticated drones for the U.S. military.

What problems does Redwire face?

Redwire ended the first quarter of 2026 with $175 million in total liquidity. But on June 9, it announced an at-the-market (ATM) equity offering to sell up to $500 million in new common stock. That's a lot of dilution compared to its market cap of $2.4 billion. It's already increased its share count by 232% since its public debut.

To make matters worse, Redwire received an "adverse internal controls opinion" from its auditor, KPMG, after its 2025 report. That opinion is a bright red flag, since it suggests Redwire's internal financial controls are unstable and could increase its risk of serious accounting errors.

Those headwinds, along with its persistent losses and a waning interest in space stocks after SpaceX's record-setting IPO cooled off, sent Redwire's stock crashing. It might seem reasonably valued at five times this year's sales, but its dilution and potential accounting issues make it an unattractive investment. I'd rather stick with some of the market's more resilient space stocks than this speculative supply chain player.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.