Tesla Optimus Gen 3 Design Initially Finalized, Musk Sets Hard Target for Supply Chain: 1,000 Units Weekly Production by September.

TradingKey - According to a report by LatePost, multiple sources from Tesla's ( TSLA) supply chain have revealed that Tesla recently issued specific Optimus parts procurement guidelines to its suppliers. The company requested that production capacity be increased to 1,000 units per week by September this year, and further scaled up to between 2,000 and 2,500 units per week by the end of the year. Based on the year-end weekly capacity projections, suppliers will be equipped to supply parts for approximately 100,000 Optimus units annually to Tesla by the end of the year.

It is understood that prior to placing orders with the supply chain, Elon Musk reviewed and approved the latest version of Optimus during an executive meeting in late June. This signifies that Optimus Gen 3, which has been under development for more than three years, is finally set to transition out of the laboratory and enter the mass-production phase.

Elon Musk Sets Hard Production Capacity Targets: Meet Goal by Year-End or Face Team Realignment

According to media reports, during the meeting, Musk gave the team a clear mandate: achieve the production capacity target by the end of the year, or the entire Optimus procurement team will be replaced. A supply chain insider noted that this conveys Tesla's determination more powerfully than any order guidance.

Prior to this, the Optimus project had gone through a long period of waiting. Since its debut at the 2022 AI Day, Tesla has disclosed almost no complete progress to the public. According to supply chain sources, from the fourth quarter of last year to the present, Tesla has only procured about 50 robot parts per month, with most of the team's energy spent on re-optimizing the design.

Judging from the demand encountered by the supply chain, Optimus has iterated through three versions—Alpha, Beta, and C—over the past six months. The new design has adjusted the actuators in the waist, hands, and neck, increased the degrees of freedom, and utilized more lightweight materials, enabling the robot to perform more dexterous operations.

Fremont production line upgrade completed; Musk warns initial mass production will be "extremely slow"

In May this year, Tesla officially halted production of the Model S and Model X to convert the production lines at its Fremont, California factory into dedicated Optimus production lines. The entire retrofitting process took about four months. Simultaneously, Tesla is also constructing a new robot factory in Texas.

After visiting the Fremont production line on July 1, Musk publicly stated that the production of Optimus will be extremely slow at the beginning, as it involves approximately 10,000 unique parts and entirely new processes, with a technical complexity far exceeding that of automotive manufacturing.

According to a previous disclosure by Tesla Vice President Grace Tao, the company plans to achieve large-scale mass production by the end of 2026. Under Tesla's official planning, the production target for 2026 is 50,000 to 100,000 units, which is expected to rise to 500,000 to 1,000,000 units in 2027.

Beyond 100,000 Units of Capacity: Where Is the Market Demand for Optimus?

With the mass production timeline now clear, a more realistic question lies ahead: where will these manufactured robots be deployed?

Currently, Optimus is already working in closed processes such as dispensing, assembly, and logistics at Tesla's factories. However, these scenarios do not require robots to have strong generalization capabilities, and robots from other companies are doing similar tasks. Tesla has also not yet announced a clear external sales plan, meaning every Optimus unit is recorded as capital expenditure rather than revenue.

Several supply chain insiders remain cautiously optimistic. One supply chain source admitted: "We can't say Tesla is preparing to manufacture this many; we can only say Tesla is preparing to buy this many parts, which might just be stored in warehouses at first after purchase."

Multiple sources stated that while the mass production demand for Optimus may still change, Tesla's potential requirement for suppliers is to be ready with a production capacity of 100,000 units per year, and companies that cannot meet this may not get orders. For suppliers that have followed Tesla for nearly four years, this is a bet they must take.