TMC The Metals Company Could Surge: 2 Catalysts Poised to Drive Gains Over the Next Year

TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) has spent years trying to commercialize vast deposits of polymetallic nodules sitting on the Pacific Ocean floor. If you're unfamiliar, those nodules contain nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese -- all critical metals used in batteries, power grids, defense systems, and industrial infrastructure.

Indeed, demand for these nodules is what put the stock in the spotlight despite the absence of regulatory permitting. But that's changing. Here are two catalysts for this.

1. Permitting is moving forward

The single biggest catalyst for TMC isn't higher metal prices. It's permitting.

Earlier this year, TMC became the first company to submit a commercial recovery permit application under the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act.

Image source: Getty Images.

The application covers roughly 25,000 square kilometers in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, which stretches between Hawaii and Mexico in the Pacific Ocean.

The application includes an estimated 619 million wet tonnes of polymetallic nodules, which TMC estimates could support projects with a combined after-tax net present value of $23.6 billion. That's not trivial.

And management now expects a permitting decision during the first quarter of 2027. That's less than a year away.

2. Critical minerals have become a geopolitical issue

The second catalyst is about Washington. China controls a significant share of the global processing market for critical minerals, which has resulted in the U.S. searching for alternative sources of nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese.

That effort accelerated this year, when the White House directed federal agencies to streamline permitting for offshore critical mineral projects and strengthen domestic supply chains.

Whether every proposal ultimately moves forward, the policy direction is still quite clear: Securing reliable mineral supplies is now a strategic priority. And that has created a much more supportive backdrop than existed just a few years ago.

Don't ignore the risks

To be sure, this is still a speculative investment.

Deep-sea mining remains highly controversial, with more than 40 countries supporting a temporary moratorium while conducting additional environmental research. Legal challenges or policy changes could certainly delay commercial production.

TMC also isn't generating any meaningful operating cash flow yet, so don't be surprised to see additional financing come into play before large-scale mining begins. As of today, the company has only about 10 months of working capital and capital expenditure commitments.

Still, TMC has come a long way already, and if permitting gets locked in, the stock could get a very nice boost. And really, that's the primary focus right now: securing the permits required to unlock billions of dollars' worth of polymetallic nodules under the ocean.

Jeff Siegel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.