Should You Buy Bitcoin While It's Under $80,000? The Answer Might Surprise You.

Stock market investors are having a great year, particularly those heavily exposed to the technology sector. Cryptocurrency investors, on the other hand, aren't faring so well.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 40% from last year's record high, and although its market capitalization of $1.4 trillion still makes it the world's largest cryptocurrency, there appears to be a real lack of conviction in the bullish case right now.

Many investors touted Bitcoin as the digital currency that could transform the financial system, but it still hasn't gained traction as a basic payment mechanism. Other investors believed it was a digital replacement for gold, but in a moment, I'll explain why that thesis completely fell apart last year.

With that in mind, here's why buying Bitcoin at the current price of $73,000 probably won't lead to riches.

Image source: Getty Images.

Blistering historical returns

Despite Bitcoin's recent losses, it's still one of the best-performing assets of the past decade. With a return of more than 13,600%, it has crushed gold, real estate, and stock market indexes like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100.

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts.

Furthermore, many of Wall Street's biggest Bitcoin bulls haven't wavered. Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor still believes it will soar to $21 million per coin by the year 2045, based on the idea that it will become the world's reserve currency.

That would give the cryptocurrency a market capitalization of $441 trillion, making it six times more valuable than all 500 companies in the S&P 500 combined, and 13 times more valuable than the annual output of the entire U.S. economy.

Color me skeptical. Before investors get too wrapped up in that lofty target, it's important to remember that Strategy is a treasury company that owns $62 billion worth of Bitcoin, so Saylor has a vested interest in issuing highly bullish public forecasts.

Then there is ARK Investment Management, which is run by seasoned tech investor Cathie Wood. It predicts Bitcoin's market capitalization could reach $16 trillion by 2030, which would translate to $762,000 per coin based on a fully diluted supply of 21 million coins. It's a far more reasonable target, and the firm cites six potential upside catalysts that could make it a reality.

One of the most noteworthy catalysts is Bitcoin's recognition by investors as digital gold. The cryptocurrency has a capped supply, and it's fully decentralized, so it can't be controlled by any person, company, or government, which is why ARK (and many investors) compare it to the shiny yellow metal.

Wood's base case is for Bitcoin to capture 40% of the market capitalization of real gold, which currently stands at $31.7 trillion. That alone makes up $12.6 trillion of the firm's $16 trillion target for the coin's market cap.

Bitcoin lost its way in 2025, and it's struggling to recover

This isn't the first time Bitcoin has suffered a sharp decline. It lost more than 70% of its peak value on two occasions over the last decade alone -- first in 2018, and then again in 2022. But it feels different this time, because I would argue none of the factors that drove it higher in the past still hold water, which could make a recovery more difficult.

Since the digital coin's launch in 2009, just 6,880 businesses have signed up to accept it as payment for goods and services (according to crypto directory Cryptwerk), which is a drop in the bucket compared to the 358 million registered businesses worldwide. Therefore, it probably won't be taking over the financial system anytime soon.

Moreover, 2025 presented Bitcoin with a prime opportunity to prove its status as a digital version of gold. The Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs on most of America's trading partners, causing chaos across the global economy. The government also ran a whopping $1.8 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2025 (ended Sept. 30), which sent the national debt barreling toward $40 trillion. This stoked fears of a sharp increase in money supply, which sent the U.S. dollar tumbling.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin declined by 5% in 2025, while real gold rocketed higher by 64%. In other words, when investors needed a safe-haven asset, they made a very clear choice -- and it wasn't Bitcoin.

In summary, the case for owning Bitcoin is getting harder to argue with each passing year, so even though buying the dip worked in the past, I'm not convinced it's the right move this time.

Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.