Should You Buy the SpaceX IPO? Here's My Honest Take

It's official. SpaceX is set to go public with a targeted IPO date of June 12. The company is reportedly seeking to raise about $75 billion in capital through the offering, at a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion.

Although those figures won't be finalized until shortly before the IPO, it will easily be the largest IPO of all time. In fact, once SpaceX goes public, it will instantly be among the 10 largest publicly traded companies on the stock market.

Image source: Getty Images.

I've read through the company's S-1 filing, which provides a detailed look at the business, the revenue it's generating, and how profitable (or not) it is. Here's a quick rundown of what you're getting with the SpaceX IPO, some of the most important numbers investors need to know, and my honest take on whether I'd invest in SpaceX stock when it goes public.

SpaceX IPO: Know what you're buying

There are three distinct components to SpaceX, and it's important to know all three.

First, there's the rocket launch business, which is the most visible part of the company. This includes the Falcon rockets and the Starship, which is in late-stage development. Although it doesn't have a monopoly and there are other promising companies like Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), SpaceX is the dominant player here, with roughly 80% of mass delivered to orbit getting there thanks to SpaceX rockets.

The second, and most profitable part of SpaceX is Starlink, the satellite internet business. Not only is Starlink the fastest-growing telecom business ever, but it is still growing revenue by more than 60% year over year and has a large addressable market opportunity (more on that in a bit).

Finally, there's the xAI business, which SpaceX "acquired" earlier this year. It includes the Grok AI tools and the X platform (formerly Twitter).

The numbers: Is SpaceX making money?

This is a more complicated question than you might think. In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in revenue, and even though the xAI acquisition occurred in 2026, the 2025 results were recast to reflect the combined business.

On the bottom line, SpaceX produced a $4.9 billion net loss last year. And to be clear, it could take several years for the company as a whole to reach GAAP profitability. Management will likely need to invest aggressively in the AI side of the business over the next few years.

On the other hand, SpaceX was quite profitable on an adjusted basis, reporting $6.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA.

So, how much money is SpaceX making (or losing), really? It's somewhere in between the two. For example, about $6 billion of the net loss was depreciation and amortization (the D and A in EBITDA) of the company's assets, which isn't an actual cash expense -- but then again, capital assets do wear out over time. Additionally, nearly $2 billion of the net loss was interest expense, which is a very real cost, but isn't reflected in EBITDA. Another big line item was about $2 billion in stock-based compensation, which is backed out of adjusted EBITDA. This is a completely reasonable amount for a trillion-dollar company, but while it's not a cash charge, it does dilute shareholders over time.

SpaceX's market opportunity is what?

SpaceX cites a $28.5 trillion total addressable market opportunity in its S-1, which should be taken with a big grain of salt. It includes the entire global broadband industry, satellite services, the aerospace and space economy -- and all the way out past 2040, not even as they exist now. Remember how Elon Musk said that the company would eventually put thousands of data centers in space? That's included in the figure.

For context, a $28.5 trillion addressable market is about two-thirds of the United States' total GDP. It's not the amount of revenue (or anywhere close) that SpaceX could actually earn.

My honest take: To buy, or not to buy?

Let's be clear. SpaceX is a legitimate business with a lot to like. There's a defensible case based on its revenue and growth that Starlink is worth $600 billion to $700 billion all by itself, and that the rocket launch business should add another $300 billion or so to that. The xAI business is the most difficult to value, as it's almost entirely a bet on revenue streams that don't yet exist.

One thing I'd point out is that 7 of the 10 largest IPOs in history underperformed the S&P 500 in their first year, and that's especially true for those that had the most hype going into their offerings. I'm not necessarily saying that SpaceX will do the same, but it's worth approaching with caution.

I'm not going to be buying the SpaceX IPO, at least right away. My plan is to wait until the dust settles after the IPO, we've had a look at a quarterly report or two from the company, and the lockup periods that prevent insiders from selling are over. Then I'll reassess.

Matt Frankel, CFP has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.