Is Bitcoin More Likely to Hit $50,000 or $100,000?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been rising in value lately, topping $80,000 for the first time in months. For the most part, however, it's been a volatile year for the leading cryptocurrency, which as of Tuesday was still down around 8% since the start of 2026. And it's nowhere near the highs of more than $126,000 that it reached last year.

What level is the digital currency more likely to hit this year: $50,000 or $100,000?

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Why Bitcoin could get to $100,000

In the past month, Bitcoin's value has risen by 17% amid strong momentum. Positive developments around the Clarity Act, which would preserve stablecoin rewards, have given investors hope that the bill may pass this year, and that would be a positive for the crypto markets as a whole, potentially sending Bitcoin's value even higher.

Plus, if there are also rate cuts under the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, that could further boost speculative assets such as Bitcoin. Generally, when appetite for risk is high, it can help boost Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies' values.

Why Bitcoin could also fall to $50,000

If market conditions worsen and economic concerns weigh on investors, Bitcoin may fall in value. Earlier this year, it hit lows of around $60,000 and struggled alongside the S&P 500. If the overall markets tumble, as they might in a crash (potentially due to high valuations), Bitcoin may go down with the decline. Investors shouldn't forget that back in 2022, when the S&P 500 crashed by 19%, Bitcoin was down nearly 65%.

When there's less of an appetite for speculation, the cryptocurrency can potentially fall significantly in value, which is why a decline to $50,000 may be a possibility. However, whether it crashes may ultimately depend on the state of the overall stock market and investor sentiment.

Which scenario looks more probable?

The stock market has been doing well of late, and thus, there is a growing probability that Bitcoin may rise higher in the short term. However, I believe it'll fall short of getting back to $100,000, simply because of the war in Iran and ongoing geopolitical risks.

Instead, by the end of the year, I think it's more likely to fall to $50,000, as the stock market looks overdue for a significant pullback given how inflated valuations have become of late and with the S&P 500 hitting record highs. And when that happens, Bitcoin may go along with it. Investors should be cautious with Bitcoin because, while it may be picking up steam right now, that doesn't mean it's destined to keep rising; it remains a very risky and volatile investment.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.