US Pre-Market: Volatile US-Iran Tensions Trigger "Great Retreat" of Risk Assets; Nvidia Quantum Models and Tesla AI5 Chips Lead Hardware Revolution

Market Movement

U.S. stock index futures broadly lower pre-market

TradingKey - Ahead of Wednesday's U.S. market open, the Volatility Index (VIX) fluctuated, while the three major U.S. index futures all edged lower. As of press time, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.07% (to 25,823 points); S&P 500 futures fell 0.04% (to 6,964 points); and Dow Jones 30 futures dropped slightly by 0.03% (to 48,551 points).

ASML reports strong earnings and raises 2026 revenue guidance

Benefiting from robust demand for advanced chipmaking equipment fueled by a surge in global artificial intelligence (AI) spending, ASML ( ASML) reported first-quarter revenue and profit that both beat market expectations on Wednesday. The company also raised its 2026 sales outlook, increasing its net sales forecast from the original range of 34 billion to 39 billion euros to a range of 36 billion to 40 billion euros (approximately $42.4 billion). Despite the strong performance, ASML's U.S. shares edged down 1.39% in pre-market trading to $1,497.

NVIDIA releases open-source AI models; related stocks jump

NVIDIA ( NVDA) today introduced the world's first series of open-source AI models designed to accelerate the development of quantum computing. Boosted by this significant positive news, the quantum computing sector broadly strengthened: Xanadu Quantum Technologies ( XNDU) surged 21%, D-Wave Quantum ( QBTS) rose 6.6%, IonQ ( IONQ) and Rigetti Computing ( RGTI) both gained around 4%, while Infleqtion ( INFQ) and Quantum Computing Inc. ( QUBT) also rose 2.25% and 3.3%, respectively.

AI5 chip successfully taped out; Musk predicts it will become global mainstream

Tesla ( TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced that the company's AI chip design team has successfully taped out the AI5 chip, marking its official entry into the manufacturing phase. Musk celebrated the news on social media and revealed that development of subsequent chips, including AI6 and Dojo 3, is progressing simultaneously. He also thanked TSMC ( TSM) and Samsung for their support in mass production. Musk stated that AI5 will become one of the highest-volume AI chips in the world. Tesla's U.S. shares rose 0.63% in pre-market trading to $366.

SEC eliminates day trading threshold; Robinhood shares jump

Ahead of the U.S. market open on Wednesday, Robinhood ( HOOD) shares surged 7.17% to $34.7, extending yesterday's strong 10% rally. This follows the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a comprehensive overhaul of retail day trading restrictions, officially eliminating the $25,000 minimum equity requirement—a move seen as a major policy tailwind for retail brokerages.

U.S.-Iran tensions fluctuate; Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin retreat after surging

Influenced by the ongoing back-and-forth between negotiations and aggressive rhetoric from the U.S. and Iran, global risk assets surged before pulling back. Spot gold ( XAUUSD) retreated after breaking above $4,800/oz, while silver ( XAGUSD) touched $80/oz and Bitcoin ( BTC) hit $76,000 before all three experienced pullbacks. In contrast, the crude oil market remained resilient; WTI crude ( USOIL) rose above $85/bbl, and Brent crude touched $92/bbl, showing a trend of opening lower and trending higher.

Bitcoin price chart, source: CoinMarketCap

Market Headlines

US and Iran "Agree in Principle" to Extend Ceasefire

According to the Associated Press, signals of easing tensions have emerged in the Middle East. Several regional officials revealed on Wednesday that the United States and Iran have made substantial progress through mediation, with both sides "agreeing in principle" to extend the existing ceasefire agreement. The move is intended to create the necessary peaceful conditions for subsequent deeper diplomatic dialogue and the resumption of negotiations.

NATO Formulates "Backup Plan" Against Potential US Withdrawal

According to The Wall Street Journal, in the face of U.S. President Trump's repeated threats to re-evaluate the U.S. role in European security, European officials are accelerating the development of a "contingency plan" to ensure that the European continent maintains self-defense capabilities in the extreme event that the U.S. chooses to withdraw from NATO. The plan proposes restructuring based on NATO's existing military framework.

Anthropic Launches Identity Verification Mechanism for Claude

AI giant Anthropic announced the introduction of an identity verification mechanism in certain use cases to combat abuse, enforce usage policies, and fulfill legal compliance obligations. The mechanism is powered by the service provider Persona, requiring users to submit government-issued identification and undergo a real-time selfie verification. Anthropic emphasized that the verification data is used solely for identity confirmation and is strictly prohibited for model training, marketing, or advertising. If verification fails, users can apply for manual assistance; however, accounts involving repeated violations, underage usage, or registration in unsupported regions will be blocked.

X Launches Cashtags to Support Real-Time Financial Market Data

On April 15, Nikita Bier, Product Lead at X (formerly Twitter) and Solana ecosystem advisor, confirmed in a post today that X has launched the Cashtags feature, providing full support for real-time market data for stocks and crypto tokens. Bier noted that X has long been a central hub for financial information, with billions of dollars in capital flows directly influenced by timeline content daily; this move will further strengthen its position as the preferred platform for investors.

Kraken Confidentially Files for IPO with Valuation Adjusted to $13.3 Billion

Arjun Sethi, co-CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, confirmed that the company has officially filed a confidential IPO application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Kraken had previously suspended its listing plans due to a market downturn; its latest valuation is approximately $13.3 billion, a significant decline from its $20 billion peak in 2025. Additionally, Deutsche Börse Group has committed to a $200 million investment to acquire a 1.5% fully diluted stake in Kraken.

Bernstein Bullish on Prediction Markets Reaching Trillion-Dollar Scale

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani noted in a recent report that prediction markets are experiencing explosive growth, with total trading volume expected to reach $240 billion in 2026, a 370% year-on-year increase. The report further predicts that, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80%, the market scale is poised to reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Key Data and Events Preview

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)

U.S. Import Price Index MoM (March)

U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index (April)

U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 10 (10,000 barrels)

Fed Governor Barr participates in a discussion on "Consumer Compliance Oversight and Regulation"

Fed Governor Bowman speaks at the Institute of International Finance forum

Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book

Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of the IMF meetings