3 Dividend ETFs with 25% Upside Over the Next Year, According to Wall Street Analysts
Key Points
The market rotation into value and non-tech has opened the doors for bigger returns from dividend stocks.
These three dividend ETFs all have higher tech exposure, which is what's driving analyst estimates at the moment.
Looking at analyst estimates for the funds' individual holdings, these dividend ETFs have some of the highest share price growth targets over the next year.
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Dividend stocks are making a comeback in 2026 thanks to the market rotation that favors value and defensive stocks. After years of underperformance during the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, a lot of these stocks and the ETFs that invest in them have some intriguing upside potential.
The ETFs with the highest potential returns over the next 12 months, according to Wall Street analyst estimates, offer a mix of strategies and sector exposures. The ETF Action database, which compiles these forecasts for each of the fund's individual holdings, suggests that dividend growth and a mix of tech & cyclical themes provide the biggest upside over the next year.
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Here are three dividend ETFs that, according to these analyst price estimates, could see their share prices rise by at least 25%.
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ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats ETF
The ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NYSEMKT: TDV) invests in U.S. technology and tech-related companies that have paid and grown their dividends for at least seven consecutive years (the term Dividend Aristocrats® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC).
It's not surprising that analysts think highly of the tech sector right now. But this is far from your traditional tech ETF. Top holdings here include Avnet, Cognex, and Power Integrations. You'd have to go further down the list to find names like Apple, Applied Materials, Cisco Systems, and Texas Instruments. This is a tech ETF with a lower growth & volatility profile.
Capital Group Dividend Value ETF
The Capital Group Dividend Value ETF (NYSEMKT: CGDV) aims to deliver a yield that exceeds the S&P 500 by focusing on companies that pay dividends or have the potential to do so.
This is one of the more aggressive dividend ETFs you'll find due to its heavy tech tilt. That sector accounts for 30% of the portfolio and has Microsoft and Nvidia as the fund's two top holdings. Its mandate to produce a yield above the S&P 500's is a low bar to clear. And its ability to invest in companies with the potential to pay dividends means it casts a very wide net. The Capital Group Dividend Value ETF isn't really a dividend ETF in the truest sense, but it is a portfolio with plenty of upside.
WisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth ETF
The WisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth ETF (NASDAQ: DGRW) tracks an index of U.S. dividend-paying, large-cap companies with strong growth characteristics.
You might begin noticing a theme here. This ETF also has nearly 30% of its portfolio invested in tech. But its focus on quality metrics, such as forward-looking earnings estimates and return on equity (ROE), provides a differentiator. The dual screen on quality and dividend growth makes for an ideal long-term holding, even though it's the short-term upside potential that's so attractive.
Three dividend ETFs with 25%-plus upside potential
| Metric | TDV | CGDV | DGRW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | Technology dividend growers |
Active U.S. stocks with above-average yield |
Dividend growers with a quality screen |
| No. of Holdings | 38 | 53 | 198 |
| Expense ratio | 0.45% | 0.33% | 0.28% |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Top sectors | Technology (81%), financials (10%) |
Technology (30%), industrials (15%) |
Technology (29%), healthcare (14%) |
| Analyst upside | +26% | +27% | +25% |
Source: ProShares, Capital Group, and WisdomTree.
Tech exposure is driving the estimated upside in these three dividend ETFs. Normally, that would concern me, especially given how far tech has run over the past few years. But valuations have come down, and earnings growth estimates remain high.
These ETFs might not be as defensive as more traditional dividend ETFs, but the case for high upside is justified.
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David Dierking has positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Applied Materials, Cisco Systems, Cognex, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Texas Instruments and is short shares of Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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