Nvidia Is Down 20% From Its Peak. History Says This Is What Happens Next.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been a top-performing stock every year since 2023. But 2026 looks to be a bit different. Nvidia hasn't done well in 2026 and is continuing its slide that started in October 2025. At the time of this writing, it's now down around 20% from its all-time high, and some investors may be starting to panic.

Nvidia is no stranger to being down a significant amount from all-time highs, and history has a pretty clear indication of what's likely to happen next. I think this can give investors confidence in Nvidia's stock, as now is not the time to lose hope.

Image source: Getty Images.

This isn't the deepest sell-off Nvidia has faced

Since 2023 (when the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race kicked off), Nvidia has been down 20% from its all-time high four times.

NVDA data by YCharts

Two of those were in back-to-back moments in 2024, the deepest sell-off was the tariff-induced panic of 2025, and the fourth is happening right now. The reasons behind each sell-off were different, but the result was the same: Nvidia achieved a new, all-time high six months later.

But is this time different? I don't think so.

Two factors are causing Nvidia's current sell-off. First, geopolitical instability caused by the war in Iran is negatively affecting the market's confidence. Investors are less likely to take on risk when they're unsure of the market's future.

Second, there are growing concerns surrounding the state of AI spending. 2026 is slated to be another year of record capital expenditures, even if the market would rather see some of that spending banked as cash rather than spent on AI. However, we've barely even scratched the surface of what's possible with AI, and we need a lot more compute. There are several projections indicating that elevated AI spending is needed through 2030 to achieve the goals of the AI hyperscalers, which indicates there could be huge growth beyond 2026.

However, the market isn't pricing any of that optimism in.

NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts

Nvidia trades at 19.9 times forward earnings -- its cheapest valuation over the past two years. For reference, the S&P 500 trades for 20.4 times forward earnings. Wall Street expects Nvidia to deliver 71% revenue growth this year and 30% next year, so clearly there is plenty of market-beating growth ahead for Nvidia.

I think all this adds up to support the case that Nvidia can rebound to new all-time highs as long as AI spending stays elevated, which it likely will. Now is the perfect time to buy Nvidia's stock, as the bottom normally occurs when the outlook is most grim.

Keithen Drury has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.