Gemini Space Station (GEMI) Earnings Transcript

Image source: The Motley Fool.

DATE

Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET

CALL PARTICIPANTS

• Co-Founder — Cameron Winklevoss
• Interim Chief Financial Officer — Danijela Stojanovic
• Co-Founder — Tyler Winklevoss

TAKEAWAYS

• Net Revenue -- $56.4 million, up 13% sequentially from $49.8 million, despite a weaker crypto trading environment.
• Transaction Revenue -- $26.7 million, rising slightly from $26.3 million, with spot trading volumes down to $11.5 billion from $16.4 billion.
• Services Revenue -- $26.5 million, increasing 33% sequentially, now comprising over one-third of total revenue.
• Credit Card Revenue -- $16 million, up 87% compared to $8.5 million, with 30,000 new sign-ups in the quarter and receivables rising to $219.8 million.
• Staking Revenue -- $5.1 million, decreasing 13% from $5.9 million, reflecting lower crypto asset prices; staking balances closed at $509 million.
• Operating Expenses -- $171.7 million, essentially unchanged from the previous quarter; compensation expenses declined to $72.3 million from $82.5 million due to lower stock-based compensation.
• Headcount -- 650 at quarter-end, falling to approximately 445 as of March 1, with the full impact of a 30% reduction to be realized beginning in Q1 2026.
• Sales and Marketing -- $39 million, up from $32.9 million, driven by growth in the credit card portfolio and increased cardholder rewards spending.
• Transaction Processing Expenses -- $7.3 million, down from $8.6 million, tracking lower trading volumes.
• GAAP Net Loss -- Full-year loss of $582.8 million, including $178.5 million in noncash fair value losses and $85 million in stock-based compensation related to the IPO.
• Adjusted EBITDA -- Loss of $258 million for the year, inclusive of $33.4 million in realized and unrealized losses.
• Cash Balance -- $252 million at year-end; $117 million used for repayment of the Galaxy loan, which eliminated that debt obligation.
• Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) -- 601,000 as of year-end, up 17% year over year; Q1 data shows approximately 606,000 users through February.
• Prediction Markets Users -- 15,000 unique users traded across more than 12,000 contracts since launch in December.
• International Market Exits -- Operations in the U.K., EU, and Australia were discontinued, aligning with a focus on U.S. expansion and expense reduction.
• Restructuring Charges -- $11 million in pre-tax charges, expected in Q1 2026, covering headcount reductions and international exits.
• Card Warehouse Facility -- $154.4 million outstanding at year-end and $188 million in pledged receivables, with a facility capacity of $250 million.
• 2026 Outlook — Compensation Expense -- Excluding stock-based comp and restructuring, projected to decline 15%-20% compared to 2025; stock-based compensation expected to total $100 million to $115 million in 2026.
• 2026 Outlook — Technology and G&A -- Forecast range of $155 million to $190 million post-restructuring, with variable costs dependent on platform activity.
• 2026 Outlook — Marketing Spend -- Excluding rewards and promotions, set at 10%-15% of revenue, tuned to acquisition ROI and market opportunities.

Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email pr@fool.com

RISKS

• Stojanovic said, "Full year adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $258 million," and described this result as "not where we want it to be," highlighting the need for decisive cost restructuring.
• Stojanovic noted, "trading volume was approximately $5.3 billion, down from Q4 levels as broader trading activity has continued to soften," signaling continued headwinds for trading-driven revenue.
• Stojanovic stated that 2025 "was the most expensive year in the company's history," driven by IPO costs, card investments, and international expansion.
• The company is not providing total operating expense guidance for 2026, citing ongoing restructuring and a "macro environment that is difficult to forecast."

SUMMARY

Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ:GEMI) reported sequential revenue growth to $56.4 million, despite a depressed crypto trading market, as services revenue expanded to represent over a third of the total. Management highlighted a strategic shift toward recurring, diversified revenue streams, aided by strong credit card engagement and the launch of proprietary prediction markets that attracted 15,000 users in the initial months. Operating expenses remained flat quarter over quarter, but major cost-reduction actions—including a 30% headcount cut and exits from the U.K. EU, and Australia—are expected to materially lower the expense base in 2026. Net loss on a GAAP basis reached $582.8 million for the full year, heavily influenced by noncash IPO- and market-related charges, while adjusted EBITDA loss stood at $258 million. Management refrained from providing full-year expense guidance due to macro uncertainty and the progression of restructuring, instead offering targeted forecasts for individual cost categories.

• Stojanovic commented, "Services and interest revenue came in ahead of the $60 million to $70 million range we provided at our third quarter earnings call," signaling higher-than-expected performance in non-trading segments.
• Over 150,000 open credit card accounts existed as of March 1, up from roughly 30,000 at the year's start, signifying rapid user and receivables growth.
• Cameron Winklevoss described the company's plan for a "super app" model, with future launches in U.S. equities and perpetual futures contingent on regulatory approval.
• Stojanovic disclosed that Q4 sales and marketing included $39 million in expenses, noting the variable nature of marketing spend in response to cardholder growth and market conditions.
• Exiting less profitable international markets was designed to concentrate growth initiatives and accelerate the path to profitability within the U.S.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

• Prediction Markets: Markets where individuals can bet on the outcomes of future events, with pricing intended to reflect the collective views or probabilities assigned by participants.
• MTU (Monthly Transacting Users): The unique number of users actively transacting on the platform in a given month.
• Receivables: Outstanding credit card balances held by customers on which the company earns interest or fees.
• DCM (Designated Contract Market): A CFTC-regulated exchange on which futures and options contracts may be traded.
• Card Warehouse Facility: A debt facility used to finance credit card receivables, collateralized by those receivables.
• MCP (Model Context Protocol): An open-source API designed for AI agents to interact with Gemini's platform.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Cameron Winklevoss: Thanks, Ryan. Cameron here. 2025 was a remarkable year for Gemini. We crossed the threshold into the public markets and became a public company on September 12 after being a private company for over a decade. On that day, the price of Bitcoin was $115,000. Since then, Bitcoin has traveled down to $60,000 and then back up to around $70,000 where it hovers today. A reminder that one of the biggest challenges for crypto builders and investors is its cyclical nature. And a reminder that in order to move beyond these cycles, you need to build beyond them. We started as a Bitcoin company. We became a crypto company. We are now becoming a markets company.

If Gemini's first decade was building a bridge to the future of money, today, we are building a bridge to the future of money in markets via a super app. Our first foray into people's daily financial lives beyond buy, sell and store crypto began with the Gemini credit card, which delivered strong growth last year. In 2025, card sign-ups grew nearly 15x and credit card revenue reached $33.1 million, up 185% year-over-year. Many of these Gemini credit card customers engage with Gemini multiple times a day to earn crypto rewards when they spend with the Gemini credit card. December marked a new era for Gemini with the launch of Gemini Predictions.

We believe prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today's capital markets. They offer a profound and boundless opportunity to leverage the wisdom of the crowds and the power of markets to provide unique insights into the future. Our investment in securing a designated contract market DCM license from the CFTC to launch our own prediction marketplace positions us as an early mover on this new and exciting frontier. We have been building and operating regulated marketplace infrastructure for over a decade: sequencers, matching engines, order books, real-time settlement, post-trade reporting, custody infrastructure and more. This is a big part of what we do best.

Our prediction markets are new instruments running on infrastructure we already know how to build and operate. As a result, we chose not to partner with a third party or license someone else's technology and instead build it ourselves. And in doing so, this also means we have chosen to invest in developing the unique operational capabilities for creating and resolving thousands of contracts on a daily basis, a new and fascinating challenge with growing complexity as we expect the cardinality of these markets to continue to explode over time. In short, we built Gemini predictions from the ground up because we want to own and operate our prediction markets end-to-end for the long term.

We believe in the power of markets. Bitcoin is a store of value that is a product of market forces. The best economies are market-based. Markets are truth over the long term, and we believe that we are just figuring out how to apply them to the world around us. From politics to economic indicators, business, tech, culture and sports, prediction markets are forecasting the future more accurately and more quickly than traditional posters, experts and the media. This is a profound change in the world's source of truth and an equally profound solution to the loss of trust in our institutions and resulting epistemological crisis. The printing press created the fourth estate or the public press.

The Internet created the fifth estate or decentralized public press. Prediction markets are creating the sixth estate. Decentralized information, combined with the integrity and accountability of markets [indiscernible] in the game. Like money, markets are an innovation and technology that continue to evolve thousands of years after they were first invented. From the birth of the bond markets in the Italian city states in the 12th century to the launch of the first stock market in Amsterdam in the 17th century to electronic trading replacing the open outcry of humans in trading pits on Wall Street in the 21st century, markets continue to grow and develop.

Just when you thought the money experiment had reached its terminal steady state, Bitcoin emerged. Just when you thought markets were done maturing, prediction markets caught fire. Gemini was founded to help build and shape a new era of money. Today, we have a similar opportunity to help build and shape a new era of markets. Unfolding in parallel is the meteoric ascent of AI. Once these strains of technology, money, markets and AI converge, we believe they will supercharge each other in dramatic and novel ways that generate new economic activity that we are uniquely positioned to be at the center of and help build and shape to.

This caldron of Promethean fire could make progress in these fields up to this point appear rather quaint. We have long felt that it is only a matter of time before we have more machines as customers than humans. Machines can't open a bank account, but they can easily plug into protocols and use crypto to become rational economic actors. Humans may have built crypto, but crypto is not so much money for humans as it is money for machines. We're just starting to see this take shape. Here's one example. For the first decade, we had 3 API protocols: REST, WebSockets and FIX.

We're now adding a fourth, Model Context Protocol, or MCP, an open-source API interface designed specifically for AI agents like large language models or LLMs. While we believe AI is going to change the composition of our customer base, it's already changing the composition of our workforce and how we work. Up until recently, the impact of software engineers could differ by an order of magnitude or 10x. Great engineers would have 10x more impact than good engineers. AI has completely changed the game, expanding this paradigm by another order of magnitude at a minimum, making a 10xer, now a 100xer. Critically, we are seeing that this step change holds true for every engineer who adopts AI in their workflows.

And it also holds true for non-engineering work as well. Doing more with less has never been more true or possible, and we believe this trend line is only just beginning. Notably, the force multiplier effect of AI for Gemini and our workforce is quite new. It wasn't until the end of last year that AI agents for coding and software development had a splitting of the atom moment. While different pockets of our technology organization have been experimenting with AI and their workflows for a while, AI was not core to them.

For example, late last summer, when we were in the middle of our IPO roadshow, AI was used in only 8% of the code being written and shipped to production. In December, however, the future arrived. Models hit an inflection point and in combination with the internal tools we built for [indiscernible] management, AI is now too powerful not to use at Gemini. Today, AI is used in more than 40% of our production code changes, and we expect that number to climb close to 100% in the not-too-distant future. Not using AI at Gemini will soon be the equivalent of showing up to work with a type writer instead of a laptop.

As a result, we have reduced the size of our workforce by roughly 30% since the start of 2026. We believe that a smaller organization leveraging the right tools isn't just more efficient, it's actually faster. Gemini started in America in 2015. Since then, we expanded our areas of operation to more than 60 countries. These foreign markets proved hard to win in for various reasons, and we found ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drove our cost structure up and slowed us down. And we didn't have the demand in these regions to justify them.

The reality is that America has the world's greatest capital markets and America has always been where it's at for Gemini. Furthermore, we are encouraged by the stated goals of the current SEC and CFTC and their efforts thus far to make the super app possible in America and usher in a new golden age of markets. So we decided it was time for us to focus and double down on America. This will allow us to build more meaningful and powerful relationships with new and existing customers. To that end, in addition to reducing the size of our workforce, we have reduced the areas in which we operate by exiting the U.K., EU and Australian markets.

We expect this will help reduce our total expenses in line with our headcount reduction and meaningfully accelerate our path to profitability even in the backdrop of the current crypto market, simplify, consolidate, then accelerate. We love being a public company, perhaps a somewhat surprising statement when looking at the performance of our share price over the past 6 months since we've been public. But rather than being dispirited, we are motivated. And while it's never fun to see your stock drop, we love the feedback loop. It forces us to confront what is working and what is not working, and it makes us sharper. It's challenging, but absolutely the right challenge.

We view this feedback loop as one of the greatest benefits of being a public company as growers losing a race provided invaluable feedback on the changes you needed to make in order to win. The path to the Olympics is paved in lost races and the invaluable learning that comes from them. So we welcome the feedback and love the challenge. 2025 marked the end of Gemini 1.0 and 2026 marks the beginning of Gemini 2.0. This starts with our shift into becoming a markets company with Gemini predictions and using the same infrastructure to power our perpetual futures contracts once these contracts are allowed in the U.S.

And it continues with our plan to launch U.S. equities as the next phase of our platform, giving our customers access to the largest, most liquid markets in the world. Altogether, we have developed the foundation and building blocks for a super app, where users will be able to fulfill their existing and future financial needs all in one place, amazing awaits.

Danijela Stojanovic: Thank you, Cameron and Tyler, and great to speak with everyone. Before I turn to the numbers, I'll briefly note that I stepped into the interim CFO role earlier this year after serving as Gemini's Chief Accounting Officer since May of 2025. I've been closely involved in the company's financial reporting, the IPO process and the prior 2 quarters as a public company. The broader finance organization remains fully in place, and there has been no disruption to our financial reporting or operational execution. I will begin with a few key takeaways from the quarter before walking through the results in more detail. First, revenue grew sequentially despite a materially weaker crypto trading environment in Q4.

Second, the business continued to diversify meaningfully. Services revenue more than doubled year-over-year and now represent over 1/3 of our revenue. And third, the restructuring actions we announced earlier this year repositioned the company with a significantly lower cost base going into 2026. Now turning to the results. Net revenue for the fourth quarter was $56.4 million, up 13% from $49.8 million in Q3. This growth occurred despite a more challenging market backdrop. The biggest driver of that change was volatility in the crypto market. Bitcoin fell nearly 47% from its October high, and that environment put real pressure on trading volumes and transaction fees.

The credit card business kept growing through it, which helped offset some of that, but Q4 was a harder macro quarter than Q3. I'll walk through the key components. Transaction revenue was $26.7 million, up slightly from $26.3 million in Q3 on spot volumes of $11.5 billion compared to $16.4 billion in Q3. Retail volumes came in at $1.6 billion and institutional at $9.9 billion. As a reminder, we earn fees from both retail and institutional customers with rates varying by order type, instant orders at the top of the range and active trader orders lower. While volumes declined, transaction revenue proved relatively resilient.

This reflects improvements in fee economics across both retail and institutional trading as well as a mix shift in retail trading towards higher fee order types. Services revenue for the quarter was $26.5 million, up 33% sequentially from $19.9 million in Q3. This category continues to grow quickly and represents one of the most important structural shifts in our business. A few things worth calling out here. Credit card revenue was $16 million, up 87% from Q3's $8.5 million. We added nearly 30,000 new card sign-ups in the quarter compared to 64,000 in Q3, and receivable balances grew to $219.8 million.

Staking revenue was $5.1 million, down 13% from Q3's $5.9 million, largely reflecting lower crypto asset prices during the quarter. However, we continue to see adoption of staking across the platform, including through auto staking features integrated with the credit card rewards program. Q4 was our first full quarter with Card Auto staking rewards live, which came alongside the Solana card launch in October. That feature is a great example of natural multiproduct engagement in providing customers a way to stake organically. They pick a stakable reward. It gets staked automatically on every card transaction and their staking customer without any extra steps. Staking balances at quarter end were approximately $509 million.

Staking fee rate adjustment we made in Q3 also ran through a full quarter for the first time. Let me turn to expenses. Total operating expenses for Q4 were $171.7 million, essentially flat compared to Q3. Compensation and headcount expenses declined to $72.3 million from $82.5 million in Q3, reflecting lower stock-based compensation expense. Stock-based comp in Q4 was $36 million. Headcount at quarter end was 650 compared to 677 in Q3. Importantly, the roughly 30% workforce reduction that occurred in early 2026 is not yet reflected in those numbers. That impact starts flowing through in Q1 of 2026 with the full run rate savings expected to be reflected by Q3 and beyond.

As of March 1, total headcount was approximately 445. Sales and marketing was $39 million, up from Q3's $32.9 million, reflecting the continued growth and momentum of the credit card portfolio and increased cardholder spending, which drove higher crypto rewards during the fourth quarter. As we've said consistently, we treat marketing as a variable line and calibrate it to what we are seeing in acquisition performance and growth opportunities. For the full year, sales and marketing was $97.1 million or $52.5 million, excluding credit card rewards and promotions, which remained in line with the $45 million to $60 million range we previously guided to.

Transaction processing expenses were $7.3 million, down from Q3's $8.6 million, reflecting lower trading volumes during the quarter. Transaction losses were $6 million, down from Q3's $7.7 million. This includes a provision for credit losses on the card of $2.8 million, which remained broadly consistent with the prior quarter. Overall, credit quality across the card portfolio continues to remain stable as the book scales. Technology and infrastructure was $22.3 million, up from Q3's $20.3 million, mainly reflecting higher cloud infrastructure and software licensing costs as the platform scaled. General and administrative was $24.9 million, up from Q3's $19.3 million, driven mainly by higher professional services and ongoing public company operating costs.

Full year tech and G&A came in at $154.6 million, in line with our guidance range. Now turning briefly on to full year metrics. We served approximately 601,000 MTUs as of December 31, up 17% year-over-year, reflecting continued growth in engagement as users adopt additional products across the platform. Full year net revenue was $174 million compared to $141 million in 2024, up 24% year-over-year. Transaction revenue for the year was $98 million, while services and interest revenue reached $76 million, representing a significant and growing portion of our overall revenue base. This shift towards services is a key structural change, reducing dependence on trading activity.

Services and interest revenue came in ahead of the $60 million to $70 million range we provided at our third quarter earnings call. This was driven primarily by stronger-than-expected card flows with more than 116,000 new card sign-ups during the year in response to card addition launches such as the XRP card. We saw growth across several other services categories. Custodial fee revenue increased 25% year-over-year, driven by higher average crypto assets under custody. We also recognized approximately $4.8 million of advisory revenue related to services provided to a strategic customer as well as $1.2 million from new on-chain offerings, including integrations and token listing services.

As we continue expanding the platform, we see increasing opportunities to drive monetization across multiple services as users engage with additional products beyond trading. Total operating expenses for the full year were $525 million versus $308 million in 2024. The year-over-year increase was driven largely by 3 main things: first, stock-based compensation tied to the IPO, including the Q3 bonus accrual that settled in equity; second, the significant marketing investments we made after going public to drive card growth; and third, continued spend in technology, compliance and public company infrastructure costs. These investments were deliberate and the restructuring actions we announced are designed to reset the company's cost structure going forward.

Full year adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $258 million, which is inclusive of $33.4 million of net realized and unrealized losses. On a GAAP basis, full year net loss was $582.8 million. It is important to note that a substantial portion of the net loss relates to noncash items. These include $178.5 million of fair value losses on our prior related party instruments and mark-to-market adjustments on crypto assets as well as $85 million of stock-based compensation expense associated with the equity awards issued in connection with our IPO. We believe that adjusted EBITDA is a useful way to look at the underlying performance of the business.

That said, our adjusted EBITDA result is not where we want it to be, and we've made decisions since year-end that are designed to change that. Now briefly on the balance sheet. We ended the year with approximately $252 million in cash and cash equivalents. The largest cash outflow in the quarter was the $117 million repayment of the Galaxy loan, which was completed in Q4 and removed that obligation from our balance sheet. As a result, we enter 2026 with a simpler balance sheet and lower debt levels. Following the restructuring actions announced earlier this year, we expect our normalized operating cash losses to decline meaningfully.

Going forward, our focus is on continuing to narrow the gap to profitability through disciplined cost management and growth in higher-margin services revenue. The card warehouse facility had $154.4 million outstanding at year-end against $188 million in pledged receivables, supporting capacity of $250 million. As the receivables book grows, we'll execute additional funding capacity to support expected growth. On restructuring costs, the $11 million in pretax charges associated with the Gemini 2.0 plan will land almost entirely in Q1 of 2026 and are expected to be cash charges. They cover the U.K., EU and Australia wind down and the headcount reductions.

Timing on some of the international pieces will depend on local consultation requirements, but we expect the full plan to be substantially complete by midyear. We expect these actions to simplify the organization and reduce our operating cost base going forward. Before I turn to the full year outlook, let me share what we are seeing so far in Q1 2026. Through February, trading volume was approximately $5.3 billion, down from Q4 levels as broader trading activity has continued to soften. On the card, payment volume has exceeded $330 million with over 150,000 open card accounts. And on predictions, approximately 15,000 users have traded since launch across more than 12,000 listed contracts.

Total monthly transacting users across the platform were approximately 606,000. As always, we urge caution in extrapolating partial quarter activity. With that context, let me turn to how we're thinking about fiscal year 2026. At this time, we are not providing total operating expense guidance for the year. With the restructured cost base still taking shape and the macro environment that is difficult to forecast, we think the more useful approach is to frame the key expense categories individually. The restructuring actions we implemented earlier this year began flowing through the cost structure in Q2. Since year-end, we have reduced headcount by approximately 30% from peak levels.

Because 2025 compensation reflected the full year at pre-restructuring staffing levels, the year-over-year decline is more moderate than the underlying headcount reductions. We expect compensation, excluding stock-based comp and restructuring charges to decline 15% to 20% relative to 2025. Stock-based compensation is expected to total $100 million to $115 million in 2026. 2025 included only 2 quarters of stock-based compensation at post-IPO levels following our September listing. The full year figure is higher in absolute terms, but the quarterly run rate is stabilizing as the IPO-related grant cycle normalizes. Technology and G&A is expected to range from $155 million to $190 million. The lower end reflects the post-restructuring normalized base.

The width of the range reflects the variable costs that scale with card and trading activity, and we plan to narrow this range as we gain visibility through the year. Marketing expenses, excluding rewards and promotions, are expected at 10% to 15% of revenue, depending on market conditions and the opportunities we see in our highest returning acquisition channels. On the revenue side, our credit card product remains the principal engine for acquisition and growth. Predictions are still early, but with more than 15,000 users since December, we see early traction as encouraging, and it is central to where we are taking the company.

While 2025 was the most expensive year in the company's history, given our IPO, the card investments and international expansion, the actions we've taken since then are designed to ensure that 2026 looks very different financially. Overall, we believe that the organization we enter 2026 with is leaner, more focused and positioned to drive improved operating leverage as we continue to scale our business. Together, we expect these dynamics to result in an improvement in adjusted EBITDA in 2026 as we operate with a more disciplined cost structure and a more diversified revenue base. To summarize, 2025 was a year of significant transformation for Gemini.

We went public, scaled our credit card program, expanded and diversified revenue through services, launched prediction markets and took decisive steps to reset our cost structure. We enter 2026 with a simpler organization, a lower expense base and a more durable business model. We see the core story of Gemini today as straightforward. The business is becoming less dependent on crypto trading volumes and increasingly driven by recurring and diversified platform revenue. And with that, we will now turn to questions. Thanks, everyone.

Ryan Todd: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from James Yaro at Goldman Sachs, who asks, could you update us on the drivers of the recent executive departures and how this fits into your new strategy?

Cameron Winklevoss: Thanks for this question. So this summer was a different world. And when we IPO-ed in September, the price of Bitcoin was about $115,000 per coin. Of course, the markets dropped significantly from that point in time. But in addition, our ability to build a super app in America with predictions, there's now a path forward for that. And with the inflection point of AI, we have determined that we can move faster as a smaller, flatter AI-enabled organization that is still, of course, very much founder-led. So we think that we have the right team and the right organizational structure for today and tomorrow.

Ryan Todd: Our next question comes from Matt Coad at Truist, who asks, you continue to see traction growing your user base despite the rough crypto market backdrop. What do you believe is driving this user growth? And how do you plan to cross-sell prediction markets into this large and growing user base?

Danijela Stojanovic: Thanks for the question. I think I can start here and then maybe kick it off to Cameron or Tyler to speak a little bit more on predictions. So we're very pleased by the continued growth we see in our user base, particularly given the broader market backdrop. I think one of the key drivers here is we're continuing to see meaningful user acquisition through our credit card program and just alongside broader engagement driven by new products that we're introducing and diversifying our revenue base, such as predictions. So we'll hand it over to see if Cameron or Tyler want to touch on predictions a little bit more.

Cameron Winklevoss: So Gemini started -- when we started in 2015, we were a Bitcoin company. And people came to us and they could buy, sell and store Bitcoin. Over time, we became a crypto company, and we added additional money words like stake, where users could stake their assets with us. And then we added the Gemini credit card, and that's become an active part of people's financial lives who want to earn crypto back every time they swipe. And we're going to continue to add things to our product where users have reasons to do more with us over time. And eventually, like a number of these activities will continue to be independent of crypto cycles.

And I think that we're excited to see the engagement with prediction markets, our credit card and other things that we're going to bring to the Gemini app so that people don't have a reason to go elsewhere.

Ryan Todd: The next question comes from Adam Frisch at Evercore, who asks, can you help us frame the path to sustain positive stand-alone card economics, specifically the relative contributions from rewards optimization, lower acquisition costs, provision and credit normalization and cheaper broader funding capacity?

Danijela Stojanovic: I can take this one. Thanks for the question, Adam. So we're really encouraged by the progress that we made in Q4, reaching near breakeven on the card. The card business has scaled really quickly, and we believe it has a clear path to profitability as the portfolio matures. There's a few primary levers that we think of. So first, on the revenue side, we're seeing strong growth driven by interchange as spend increases. And then also important to note, interest income is still under earning relative to the size of the receivables space. So as the portfolio seasons and matures, interest income becomes a meaningful tailwind. And then on the cost side, we have several levers really.

So rewards are the largest expense today, but these were intentional and front-loaded to drive adoption and really establish the credit card, and it worked. We went from roughly 30,000 open accounts at the start of '25 to now over 150,000 as of March 1. And when you think about it, the Bitcoin card has only been out for about 9 months, XRP for about 5 months. So we're just getting started with this program. And rewards are really fully within our control, and we expect to optimize those over time. And to add to that, we've also really been pleased with the organic sign-up direction on a smaller spend base.

We're still averaging well north of 100 sign-ups a day, which is more than double where we were a year ago. And then we're also seeing improvements in bank fees as we scale, which will reflect better underlying economics. And then from a credit perspective, the performance is trending in the right direction. We see loss rates stabilizing and also continuing to improve as the book matures. And then finally, on funding. So while funding costs are now coming into the model, we expect those to become more efficient as the portfolio grows and also as financing options expand. The expansion of the funding facility is really an important step.

And longer term, we see opportunities to lower the cost of capital and diversify funding sources as the portfolio grows. So putting it all together, we're already near breakeven on a pre-provision basis and the path to sustained profitability is driven really by a combination of portfolio seasoning, cost optimization and scale-driven efficiencies. So we don't need one single lever to do all the work. It's really incremental improvements across each of these areas that we believe will drive the card business into consistent profitability.

Ryan Todd: The next question comes from Michael Cyprys at Morgan Stanley. 15,000 users have used Prediction Markets through the end of February. How has that translated to revenue? Where do you see the growth potential from there? How do you compete versus peers that have a higher number of active users?

Cameron Winklevoss: Thanks for this question, Michael. So we will provide an update on revenue in the near future, but it's very early at this point. But we are very encouraged with the fact that 15,000 customers have already engaged with this marketplace, which is brand new, and we did not have even a quarter ago. So we're very excited that our users are engaging with the product. We continue to grow that number on a daily basis and add many new contracts to the offering. I think crypto is a great example. I think we started with monthly contracts.

We are now down -- moved down to weekly, daily, hourly, 15-minute and just offering all these different types of intervals and ways for people to hedge and trade around the price of crypto, and we're just getting started. So we're very encouraged. I think that looking at the market as a whole, it's also very early for this market, and we see the pie only growing from here. And we think we're one of the few people who are building the full end-to-end marketplace for predictions. And we're excited that our customers -- it's resonating with them.

Tyler Winklevoss: Great. And just to add on to that, we've been building technology trading systems in marketplaces for well over a decade. So this is -- this is -- these are the kind of things that we know how to do very well. We have a website, we have a mobile app. We have API interfaces. And we've been doing market surveillance. We know how to onboard customers, KYC them and build great trading and marketplace experiences. So this is very much an extension of the over a decade of experience and expertise that we've developed over the years.

Ryan Todd: The next question comes from John Todaro at Needham.

John Todaro: How are you thinking about capital raising and liquidity if we assume crypto volumes remain lower than 2025 levels through 2026 and 2027?

Danijela Stojanovic: Thanks for the question, John. So we really appreciate it. And we're planning the business with a conservative set of assumptions, which include a scenario where volumes remain below '25 levels through '26 and '27 as well. And from a liquidity standpoint, we've taken really meaningful steps to reduce our cost base and improve cash efficiency. And really, we're focused on scaling a more durable recurring revenue streams that are less dependent on trading volumes. So our main focus is to execute on our operating plan with that discipline in mind. But with that said, we're always evaluating opportunities to strengthen our balance sheet and support sustainable growth.

And if there are opportunities for this on attractive terms, we would consider them. But we're, first and foremost, focused on demonstrating the operating improvements and letting the results really create the conditions for any future transaction or capital raise. But the key point is that we aim to build a model that can sustain itself across cycles and not one that depends on near-term recovery in volumes.

Cameron Winklevoss: Yes. So look, as founders, we've been building Gemini for over a decade. We don't just have our skin in the game. We have our entire bodies in the game. We're deeply committed to Gemini and the mission and very excited to continue building it and as we expand the mission into the super app. And I think one of the things that we've talked about is that, that really helps us break free of the crypto cycles and give customers things that they can do throughout their daily financial lives, whether it's using a credit card or trading predictions.

We're hoping to launch U.S. equities as well, investing in U.S. capital markets and really building out a more durable story of revenue and engagement that moves beyond simply buy, sell, store or say, crypto, which is obviously very core to the business, but we want to build on that and give our customers more reasons to use Gemini. And we're seeing the beginnings of that. And I think we're really excited to keep doing that. So even if crypto prices do remain depressed for some prolonged period of time, we will be building other products that continue to drive engagement and growth of our business.

Ryan Todd: The next question comes from Pete Christiansen at Citi. What is Gemini's OpEx discipline going forward? And has management put in place guardrails that helps ensure eventual profitability at the EBITDA level?

Danijela Stojanovic: Thanks for the question, Pete. So OpEx discipline is a core focus for us coming out of the restructuring. We've reset the business to a lower fixed cost base, and we put clear guardrails in place around any incremental spend. So that includes being very selective on headcount growth and tying it directly to revenue or strategic priorities and also continue to manage marketing as a variable lever really based on ROI and market conditions. And so that's a real lever that we can dial up or down depending on market conditions and requiring clear payback threshold for any new investments.

And just as importantly, we've become much more focused as an organization, so prioritizing a smaller set of high-impact initiatives and exiting or scaling back areas that just didn't meet our return thresholds. And that really allows us to concentrate our resources and our capital where we have the strongest product market fit and demand. So we believe that the organization is now structured to drive really operating leverage as volumes and engagement recovers. And what's important to add is we don't need to meaningfully re-expand the cost base to achieve our growth target.

A lot of the growth from here really comes from just better monetization of our existing user base and also just leveraging the infrastructure that we've already built. So I'd say the right way to think about this is we have a relatively stable OpEx base coming out of the restructuring with modest or highly targeted investments layered on top rather than us returning to a broad-based spending. And if 2025 was the year of investment, I'd say 2026 is really the year of focus and discipline.

Ryan Todd: The final question comes from Dan Dolev at Mizuho. Given the regulatory and competitive landscape in crypto and prediction markets, what are the biggest external risks you're managing against in 2026? And what would you point to as your most underappreciated competitive advantage?

Cameron Winklevoss: Thanks for the question, Dan. So I think one of the things that we want to talk about is the fact that, obviously, there's a lot of effort to pass a crypto market structure bill. And I think what is very encouraging to see is the SEC and the CFTC in parallel are doing great work to bring about the super app era independent of a bill. And so while we are hopeful that a good bill will ultimately get passed, there is a lot of great work going on at both agencies to create a path for super apps in the event that a bill does not pass for whatever reason.

So we believe like the future for crypto in America has never been brighter. And I think that sort of there is a lot of great work being done that we're excited about. I think the second point that I'd like to make is that we are one of the, I think, the few end-to-end prediction marketplaces that also has a crypto marketplace within the same organization. And so we believe there's a lot of synergies for people who want to trade, for example, a Bitcoin event contract, but also be able to trade spot Bitcoin within the same place and hopefully eventually perpetual futures down the road in U.S. equities.

And so I think that being an end-to-end marketplace for both predictions and spot as opposed to plugging into another marketplace, we believe that's an advantage for us going forward.

Ryan Todd: At this time, there are no more questions. Thank you all for listening, and we'll talk to you soon.

Operator: That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. Parts of this article were created using Large Language Models (LLMs) based on The Motley Fool's insights and investing approach. It has been reviewed by our AI quality control systems. Since LLMs cannot (currently) own stocks, it has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.

The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.