4 Predictions for, Yep, Crypto Prediction Markets in 2026

Prediction markets are now one of the fastest-growing segments of the fintech industry. Trading volume began to spike in 2025 and has really taken off in 2026. On a weekly basis, nearly $6 billion in prediction markets contracts are now traded on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

So what can crypto market participants expect in 2026? Here are four big predictions for where things are headed over the next year.

New players and new products

This is an easy prediction: There will be a surge of new players and crypto-specific products to trade in the year ahead. Right now, the two big players are Kalshi and Polymarket. But both Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) have entered the fray, and I'm expecting more big names to follow.

Aside from opening more opportunities for retail investors to participate in prediction markets, this should also lead to the launch of innovative products.

Image source: Getty Images.

Instead of just making a prediction about the future price of a cryptocurrency, for example, investors will also be able to make predictions about the volatility of a specific cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

Regulatory clarity

Right now, U.S.-based prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Prediction market contracts are viewed as "event contracts," and these fall under the CFTC's purview.

But there's still a lot of regulatory uncertainty. There's been rumbling about concerns over insider trading and a lack of overall transparency. So I'm predicting that a major piece of new legislation -- along the lines of the Genius Act for stablecoins from last year -- will start to make its way through Congress, in the interest of preserving the integrity of prediction markets.

Institutional adoption

As regulatory clarity around prediction markets begins to crystallize, it should attract financial institutions, including major Wall Street investment banks. Already, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has said that prediction markets are a good fit for its derivatives trading business. They dovetail nicely with Wall Street's sophisticated modeling of key economic and political events.

If I'm right, then there will be a shift in focus from prediction market participants. There will be less emphasis on price speculation, and more emphasis on hedging and overall risk management.

The arrival of AI agents

It's impossible to mention prediction markets without also mentioning artificial intelligence (AI). At some point, AI agents are going to replace humans when it comes to pricing, analyzing, and trading prediction market contracts.

So I'm expecting the major prediction market platforms to launch new initiatives along the lines of Robinhood Cortex, the AI-powered investing assistant available to Robinhood Gold members. If AI-powered assistants can help you invest in the stock market, why can't they help you invest in prediction markets as well?

Best bets for 2026

The growth in crypto prediction markets has been so off the charts that it's already having an impact on how investors view the crypto market. Over the next year, it will lead to a surge in new players and products, enhanced regulatory clarity, the arrival of big Wall Street players, and new AI agents to trade prediction markets.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.