Here's How Much Revenue OpenAI's New Advertising Business Could Generate by 2030

OpenAI recently announced on its website that it plans to start testing advertisements on ChatGPT in the U.S. The company plans to run ads only on its free and low-cost subscription accounts, while there won't be ads for ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business, or Enterprise accounts. The goal, according to the company, is to enable more people to use the platform with fewer usage limits.

OpenAI also said that users' data and conversations will not be sold to advertisers, and that ads will not drive the answers ChatGPT provides. ChatGPT will also make it clear when an ad is being generated.

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The company reportedly had 900 million weekly users as of December 2025, and many have deemed it the fastest-growing consumer app of all time. This is obviously a place advertisers will want to be, and it's also likely to drive tremendous revenue in the coming years, according to one Wall Street analyst.

Here's how much revenue OpenAI's new advertising business could generate by 2030.

A $25 billion business by 2030?

In a recent research note, Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney said that ChatGPT's ad business could quickly grow into a $25 billion annual revenue stream by 2030 if the company executes correctly. Since OpenAI generated over $20 billion of revenue in 2025, this new ad business could more than double current revenue and give OpenAI both a solid subscription and ad business.

As reported by Business Insider, Mahaney based his assumptions on his projected scale of ChatGPT by 2030, how other marketing platforms have been monetized, and his total addressable market for the company. Mahaney also noted that ChatGPT's ad business could pose a significant challenge to Google.

"OpenAI's move directly challenges this core revenue stream by offering an alternative, highly engaging platform for users to discover products and services," he said in his note. "If ChatGPT can successfully integrate ads that are helpful rather than intrusive, it could siphon off valuable commercial queries that traditionally go to Google."

Investors will need to analyze how much of a turn-off incorporating ads will be to users' experience with ChatGPT. Some investors may no longer find the experience as authentic and may flee the platform. However, to Mahaney's point, if ChatGPT performs well and continues to grow its user base while generating tens of billions in high-margin revenue, investors will view this new business as a home run.

While few businesses in history have been as hyped as OpenAI, at some point, every investor wants to see growth translate into revenue and profits.

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