Why Intel Stock Popped Today
Key Points
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh upgraded Intel to overweight this morning.
Strong demand for AI chips has Intel sold out and ready to raise prices.
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Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) stock jumped 6.1% through 11:05 a.m. ET Tuesday after KeyBanc analyst John Vinh upgraded Intel to "overweight" and assigned the semiconductor stock a $60 price target.
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Intel costs less than $47 even after today's price surge -- implying there's another 28% potential profit remaining.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why KeyBank loves Intel stock
"We expect outsize data center demand from hyperscalers this year to be a significant tailwind for DCAI," predicts Vinh. (DCAI refers to Intel's Data Center and Artificial Intelligence business, Intel's third largest in terms of revenue -- but its second most profitable according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.)
"INTC is almost sold out for the year in server CPU," continues the analyst, and with demand so strong, Intel has pricing power and is reportedly "considering a 10-15% ASP increase." (ASP is average selling price.)
Intel's foundry business is also doing well, "with 18A yields improving to over 60%." That's not as good as TSMC's (NYSE: TSM) 70% to 80% yield, but better than Samsung's "less than 40%."
Finally, Vinh notes Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) may buy 18A "low-end M- series processors for MacBooks and iPads" in 2027, and 14A "low-end mobile A-series processors for iPhones in 2029."
Is Intel stock a buy?
Many things seem to be going right for Intel, but one big thing is still very wrong:
According to S&P Global data, Intel turned profitable again for the first three quarters of 2025, but its free cash flow is still running deeply in the red -- $8.4 billion burned in just three quarters of work.
Even if Intel turns profitable this year (or next year, as most analysts expect), until they get their FCF numbers in the green again, it's going to be hard for me to call Intel stock a buy.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Intel, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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