Certara Stock Fell 23% After Earnings and This Fund Bought Up $3 Million Anyway

On Monday, Texas-based Kopion Asset Management disclosed a buy of 327,064 shares of Certara (NASDAQ:CERT), an estimated $3.37 million transaction based on quarterly average pricing.

What Happened

Kopion Asset Management reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it purchased 327,064 additional shares of Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) during the quarter ended December 31. The estimated value of this transaction is $3.37 million, based on the mean unadjusted closing price for the quarter. The quarter-end value of the stake increased by $645,681, a figure that includes both new purchases and changes in Certara’s share price.

What Else to Know

Certara now represents 6.19% of Kopion’s reportable U.S. equity AUM as of December 31.

Top holdings after the filing:

• NASDAQ: NICE: $12.03 million (8.6% of AUM)
• NYSE: FTI: $11.09 million (7.9% of AUM)
• NASDAQ: TRUP: $10.98 million (7.8% of AUM)
• NASDAQ: VRNS: $10.89 million (7.8% of AUM)
• NASDAQ: MGNI: $9.97 million (7.1% of AUM)

As of Friday, Certara shares were priced at $8.74, down 18% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 34.5 percentage points.

Company Overview

Company Snapshot

• Certara provides biosimulation software, technology-enabled services, and regulatory solutions for drug discovery, development, and market access.
• The company generates revenue through licensing its proprietary software platforms and delivering consulting and regulatory services to biopharmaceutical clients.
• Primary customers include global biopharmaceutical companies, as well as academic and government institutions engaged in drug development.

Certara, Inc. operates at scale within the healthcare information services sector, leveraging advanced biosimulation and regulatory expertise to accelerate drug development. Its integrated software and service offerings support clients from early-stage research through regulatory submission and commercialization. The company's global footprint and specialized focus provide a competitive advantage in the pharmaceutical R&D technology market.

What this transaction means for investors

Certara’s stock fell roughly 23% in a single session after its latest earnings report, a reaction that looked more like a reset of expectations than a collapse in the underlying business. Revenue still grew 10% year over year in the third quarter, with software revenue up 22%, and the company swung back to positive net income while raising its full-year profitability outlook. That’s not the profile of a business losing relevance.

Kopion’s decision to lean into volatility fits a broader pattern across its portfolio. Several of its largest holdings are companies that have lagged the S&P 500 over the past year but operate in defensible niches with recurring revenue and long product cycles. Varonis was another example of a recently depressed stock that Kopion leaned into, and Certara also checks that box. Its biosimulation software and regulatory services sit deep inside drug development workflows, where switching costs are high and demand tends to persist even when budgets tighten.

For long-term investors, the takeaway isn’t that the stock can’t fall further. It’s that sharp post-earnings drawdowns are sometimes inflection points that draw in disciplined buyers.

Glossary

AUM: Assets Under Management; the total market value of investments managed by a fund or firm.
Quarterly average pricing: The mean price of a security over a specific quarter, used to estimate transaction values.
Reportable U.S. equity assets: The portion of a fund's U.S. stock holdings that must be disclosed to regulators.
Position: The amount of a particular security or asset held in a portfolio.
Top holdings: The largest investments by value within a fund's portfolio.
Trailing twelve months (TTM): TTM – The 12-month period ending with the most recent quarterly report.
Forward price-to-earnings ratio: A valuation metric comparing a company's current share price to its forecasted earnings per share.
Biosimulation: The use of computer models to simulate biological processes, often for drug development and testing.
Regulatory solutions: Services or software that help companies comply with government rules and approval processes, especially in healthcare.
Biopharmaceutical: Companies or products related to drugs developed using biological sources and biotechnology.
Market access: The process of ensuring that products, especially pharmaceuticals, are available and reimbursed in target markets.
Healthcare information services sector: Industry segment providing technology and data solutions to healthcare organizations, often supporting research and regulatory needs.

Jonathan Ponciano has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nice, Trupanion, and Varonis Systems. The Motley Fool recommends Magnite. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.