Bitcoin Buying Metric With 109% Average Gains Turns Bullish at $88K

• Institutional buying of Bitcoin has surpassed miner supply, driven by renewed investment interest.

• Historical patterns indicate an average price increase of 109% following such buying trends.

• Analysts predict a potential rise in Bitcoin's value to $100,000, following recent price declines.

Institutional Buyers Boost Bitcoin Demand Beyond Miners' Supply

In early 2026, institutional interest in Bitcoin has surged, with purchases outstripping the supply generated by miners by a significant margin. According to Capriole Investments, institutions acquired 76% more Bitcoin than what was produced by miners, signaling a potential bullish shift in the market. This comes after a period of uncertainty and a breakdown in demand that extended into the new year, with corporate players now eager to increase their Bitcoin exposure. Capriole's Net Institutional Buying metric, which tracks corporate treasury purchases and U.S. Bitcoin ETF investments, has identified eight consecutive days of net buying exceeding new supply. "Institutions are once again net buyers of Bitcoin," affirmed Charles Edwards, Capriole’s founder, in a social media update. Historically, when institutional acquisitions surpass newly mined supply, Bitcoin prices have seen an average increase of 109% since 2020, with recent shifts already driving a 41% price uptick.

Anticipating a Bitcoin Recovery to $100,000 in January

Bitcoin's market outlook remains optimistic, with economist Timothy Peterson forecasting a return to values over $100,000 in January. Despite a previous 40% retreat from October's peak of $126,200, historical trends suggest that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a rebound. Peterson highlights that Bitcoin has endured three consecutive months of declines only nine times since 2015. Notably, in 67% of the cases, a positive price movement occurred the following month. While three exceptions were recorded in 2018 during the end of a bear market, the phenomenon previously led to a 15% average gain. Following a recent positive market opening, BTC/USD traded at $94,000, reaching levels not observed since mid-November. This rally suggests that the increasing institutional activity and historical pricing trends could herald a brighter start for Bitcoin in 2026.