IonQ vs. D-Wave: Which Quantum Computing Stock Will Outperform in 2026?

Two of the leading pure-play quantum computing stocks are IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS). While both stocks have enjoyed solid returns thus far this year, D-Wave has been the much stronger performer, with the stock up around 200% as of this writing versus only a 10% gain for IonQ.

Let's examine which stock is set up to outperform in 2026.

The case for D-Wave

While most quantum computing companies use what is known as gate-based systems, D-Wave has taken a different approach and employs quantum annealing technology. Annealing is a more specialized process used to find the best way to do something. In many ways, the difference between the technologies is similar to what we are seeing in artificial intelligence (AI) today. Gate-based systems are like general-purpose graphics processing units (GPUs) that can do many things well, while annealing is more like ASICs, which are designed to optimally perform very specific tasks.

Because of the narrower focus of annealing, D-Wave moved beyond the proof-of-concept phase and has released a production-grade quantum computer called Advantage2. In Q3, it saw its revenue double to $3.7 million, while it closed $2.4 million in bookings. Over the past year, the company has had more than 100 paying customers, including more than 20 in the Forbes Global 2000. It also noted that after the quarter, it signed a 10 million euro deal for the Advantage2 system in Europe.

In addition to its annealing technology, the company has also started working on a gate-based system. It is using flux-based qubit, or fluxonium, for the gates, which it said is the most similar to annealing qubits. This dual approach gives investors two shots on goal with one company in the quantum computing race.

The case for IonQ

While IonQ is employing a gate-based approach, it is also taking a unique approach by utilizing trapped-ion technology. Its systems utilize actual ytterbium and barium atoms, which by nature are identical. This makes them more stable than the fabricated qubits that other quantum computing companies use.

The biggest obstacle to quantum computing today is that the technology is highly error-prone, which renders it unusable in real-world situations. However, IonQ's trapped-ion technology has hit 99.99% gate fidelity (accuracy), which is among the best for quantum computing companies.

The company is also taking an ecosystem approach, looking to be more than just a hardware provider. With software, it uses an open-source approach on the front end, but it's proprietary on the back end, with its compiler and hardware optimization layer. This makes it easier for developers to program its systems while concurrently protecting its IP (intellectual property) edge. The company is also focused on using software to help reduce errors with its Clifford Noise Reduction (CliNR) solution.

At the same time, it's also building out a quantum networking portfolio to be able to better scale out its systems. One big step in this direction was with its acquisition of LightSynq, which gave it quantum interconnect technology. With LightSynq's photonic interconnect technology, IonQ will now be able to move to a modular architecture, linking "small traps" (individual quantum chips that hold a manageable number of ions) together to form a single powerful unit that is more stable and easily controllable.

It also has a fortress of a balance sheet that will let it continue to make acquisitions and fund its research and development.

Image source: Getty Images.

The verdict

While D-Wave's stock was the clear winner in 2025, its technology is much more niche. It is essentially solving specific problems through brute force computing, quickly calculating things over and over again to find good answers. This has turned into real products, but it likely isn't the long-term solution to quantum computing.

IonQ is still very much in the proof-of-concept phase. While it does have sales, the most important driver for the stock next year will be hitting technical milestones like break-even error correction and exhibiting a multicore quantum computer.

After D-Wave's huge 2025 run, I'm picking IonQ to outperform in 2026, as I think its technology has the better long-term potential and that it should hit some key milestones next year that get investors excited.

Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.