Costco's 2025: 3 Things Investors Should Know Heading Into the New Year

Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) ended 2025 in a familiar position: operationally strong, strategically disciplined, and still trading at a premium that divides investors. While the stock didn't outperform the broader market this year, the underlying business continued to execute in ways that reinforce why Costco remains one of the most closely watched names in retail.

As investors look ahead, three themes from 2025 stand out. Together, they explain both why Costco continues to command confidence and why expectations remain high.

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1. The membership engine is still doing the heavy lifting

If there was one constant in Costco's 2025 (fiscal year ended Aug. 31, 2025) performance, it was the strength of its membership model. Membership fee revenue increased to approximately $5.3 billion for the year, growing at a double-digit rate. That growth was a result of a combination of higher-paid memberships and the membership fee increase implemented in late 2024.

Paid memberships climbed to roughly 81 million households, while total cardholders reached around 145 million. Renewal rates remained near 90% globally, and even higher in the U.S. and Canada. That level of stickiness is rare in retail and continues to give Costco a structural advantage.

For investors, this matters because membership fees account for a disproportionate share of Costco's profits. The retail side of the business operates on thin margins by design. Membership income, by contrast, is high-margin, recurring, and predictable.

In 2025, that engine proved resilient even as consumers faced inflation, higher interest rates, and more selective spending. Costco didn't need to chase demand with promotions. Members continued to show up and renew their memberships. That reinforces the idea that Costco behaves less like a cyclical retailer and more like a subscription-driven business.

2. Sales growth remained steady

Costco's top-line growth in 2025 was solid rather than spectacular, but that's precisely the point. Net sales rose about 8% for the year, while comparable sales in the fourth quarter increased 5.7%, driven by both traffic growth and higher average ticket sizes.

In a year when many retailers struggled to grow volumes, Costco's ability to post positive traffic was notable. Consumers not only spent more per visit, but they also continued to return. That signals the value proposition remains intact, even as household budgets tightened.

Importantly, Costco entered fiscal 2026 with momentum. In the first quarter of the new fiscal year, revenue increased by just over 8% year over year, indicating that demand remained strong throughout the holiday period. E-commerce and digitally enabled sales continued to grow faster than in-warehouse sales, adding another layer of support.

For investors, steady sales growth matters because it compounds quietly over time. Costco doesn't need breakneck expansion to justify its long-term story. Mid-single-digit comps, combined with new warehouse openings and membership growth, are sufficient to deliver durable earnings power, provided execution remains disciplined.

3. Expansion and digital initiatives are broadening the runway

Costco continued to expand its footprint in 2025, opening 27 new warehouses (including three relocations) and pushing its global store count past 900 locations. While the U.S. remains the core market, international expansion, particularly in Asia, remains a key driver of growth.

At the same time, Costco made incremental improvements to the member experience. Digitally enabled sales grew at a double-digit pace, driven by improved online inventory access, enhanced delivery options, and streamlined checkout efficiency. Costco isn't trying to outcompete Amazon. Instead, it utilizes digital tools to improve membership value and convenience.

These moves matter because they support long-term growth without undermining Costco's cost discipline. New warehouses add members. Digital tools deepen engagement while ancillary services increase spending per household. None of these changes the core model -- it extends it.

What does it mean for investors?

Costco's 2025 didn't hinge on a single headline moment. Instead, it reinforced the same qualities investors have come to rely on: a powerful membership engine, steady sales growth, and disciplined expansion that extends the company's runway.

The stock still isn't cheap, and expectations remain high. But heading into the new year, the fundamentals suggest Costco is doing precisely what long-term investors want it to do: compound quietly, execute consistently, and avoid unnecessary risk.

For investors willing to look past short-term stock performance, 2025 offered a clear reminder of why Costco continues to earn its place among the market's most durable compounders.

Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Costco Wholesale. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.