BigBear.ai Stock: A Winning or Losing AI Investment Opportunity?

Whenever you have a huge winner in the stock market, it's only natural to start looking for companies that can duplicate that success.

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) has been a mammoth winner over the last three years, jumping 2,600% on the strength of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) that made the data analytics company a valuable government contractor with a fast-growing client base of commercial customers.

BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) is also a government contractor. And like Palantir, it's using AI, machine learning, and cloud-based data analytics to create solutions for the federal government. And while Palantir has a market capitalization of more than $440 billion right now, BigBear is much smaller, with a market cap of $2.5 billion.

Can BigBear.ai replicate Palantir's success and be a winning investment in 2026? Let's take a closer look at this Virginia-based company.

Image source: Getty Images.

About BigBear.ai stock

BigBear.ai creates customized AI-driven products to support U.S. national security. The company says its capabilities are designed to integrate with its clients' infrastructure, helping users make real-time decisions. It provides automated management of AI models, cybersecurity through AI-driven analytics, predictive intelligence, modeling, and computer simulations.

Its ConductorOS platform permits rapid deployment of AI models, connecting to sensors, unmanned vehicles, and computers in the field. It's designed to work with multiple cloud services and hardware to permit data processing and decision-making.

It also deploys veriScan, an AI-based facial authentication platform that is used at airports and other ports of entry.

The stock has outperformed the market this year, up 30% in 2025. But there are warning bells that have kept BigBear.ai from enjoying the same kind of success as Palantir, which is up nearly 150% this year.

First and foremost is a lack of revenue growth. Revenue in the third quarter was $33.1 million, down 20% from a year ago. BigBear.ai blamed the drop on lower volume of U.S. Army programs. On the positive side, it was able to generate a $2.5 million profit versus a net loss of $15.1 million in Q3 2024.

The company reported a backlog of $376 million at the end of the third quarter, and projected full-year revenue to be between $125 million and $140 million.

Can BigBear.ai duplicate Palantir's success?

While the two companies operate in the same space, they couldn't be more different. Palantir has been successful because its AIP platform is flexible enough to work with all sorts of customers. Palantir runs AIP bootcamps to showcase its software's capabilities and enable potential customers to apply it in real-world situations, and that business model has been incredibly successful.

In the third quarter alone, Palantir announced that it closed 204 deals exceeding $1 million each, with 91 of them valued at more than $5 million and 53 valued at more than $10 million. The company posted Q3 revenue of $1.18 billion, up 63% from a year ago.

BigBear hasn't been able to replicate that because it creates customized solutions for its clients, using AI, machine learning, and data analytics. While it may be effective, it's much harder to scale.

BigBear recently announced the acquisition of Ask Sage, a generative AI platform designed for defense and national security agencies. Management says Ask Sage has more than 100,000 users on 16,000 government teams as well as commercial clients.

"By integrating Ask Sage with BigBear.ai, we are creating what the market has been asking for: a secure, integrated AI platform that connects software, data, and mission services in one place," CEO Kevin McAleenan said.

If the $250 million deal can help BigBear.ai scale its business and integrate the ConductorOS and veriScan products into the Ask Sage customer base, BigBear.ai should see an improvement in its bottom line.

However, I don't see it as a viable challenger for what Palantir is doing on either the government or commercial side. I consider BigBear.ai a second-tier opportunity as an AI investment. There are better choices, with more established companies, right now.

Patrick Sanders has positions in Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.