AI Infrastructure Spending to Hit $490 Billion in 2026 -- Here's Who Wins and Who Loses

Artificial intelligence (AI) spending soared over the past few years, and nowhere has it likely grown more than for data center infrastructure. Companies are spending piles of cash for the high-powered servers used to train new AI models and keep existing ones running, with recent estimates putting AI infrastructure spending as high as $2.8 trillion through 2029 -- with $490 billion spent in 2026 alone.

The initial influx of spending by tech companies has the ultimate goal of getting a leg up on the competition and outpacing rivals over the coming years. So, which AI stocks look like winners right now and which are coming up short?

Image source: Nvidia.

Two AI stocks that could be winners for years

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is benefiting immensely from the massive uptick in AI infrastructure spending. The company's GPUs are some of the best on the market for processing and training AI, making Nvidia's chip designs the go-to choice for tech companies, and giving the company an estimated 70% to 95% market share for AI data center chips.

The result is that Nvidia's sales and earnings are surging higher. For example, the company's earnings jumped 147% in fiscal 2025 to $2.94 per share, and revenue popped 114% to $130.5 billion. Of course, that's caused Nvidia's share price to rocket higher -- with its share price returning 1,300% over the past three years. As AI spending continues over the next few years, Nvidia is likely to benefit. Its processors are used by Meta Platforms, Microsoft, OpenAI, Alphabet, and many others, which means that no matter who is spending on infrastructure, a significant portion of it is going to Nvidia.

Another big winner from this uptick in spending is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) -- which is one of the world's largest semiconductor manufacturers and a leader in advanced processors. Taiwan Semiconductor, also referred to as TSMC, makes an estimated 90% of the world's most advanced processors and is steps ahead of the competition.

The key to TSMC's success has been its ongoing development of new, more advanced manufacturing processes, with its latest being the development of its 2nm node, which allows for far more transistors on a single chip than even the company's 5nm node. Rivals are having a hard time keeping up with TSMC, with a recent Citi analyst noting that Intel is years behind the company.

With TSMC's lead in advanced processor manufacturing and the company already having a dominant lead in the space, Taiwan Semiconductor will likely benefit from more AI spending over the next few years.

This semiconductor company is a few steps behind

Of course, any time there's a massive ramp-up in competition, there are bound to be some losers in the fight. I wouldn't go so far as to say that Samsung (OTC: SSNL.F) is out of the race, but it's certainly a few steps behind rival Taiwan Semiconductor.

Samsung is a semiconductor manufacturing behemoth -- the second-largest by revenue -- but it's failed to benefit from the AI boom in the same way that TSMC has. For one, Samsung's tech doesn't quite match TSMC's advanced manufacturing. TSMC's advanced 3nm chip manufacturing process has 90% yield rates, making its production very reliable and efficient, while Samsung's is around 50%.

Samsung's vice chairman of its semiconductor business, Jun Young-hyun, apologized last year for the company falling behind, saying, "We have caused concerns about our technical competitiveness, with some talking about the crisis facing Samsung."

There's some evidence that Samsung is trying to carve out a bigger space in AI infrastructure, with the company winning a $16.5 billion contract with Tesla recently to manufacture advanced processors for the company.

Still, Samsung doesn't match TSMC's manufacturing prowess or deal-making. If investors are looking for clear winners in the AI race right now, putting some money toward Taiwan Semiconductor or Nvidia would be a better move than betting on Samsung catching up.

Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Intel, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft, short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft, and short November 2025 $21 puts on Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.