Wall Street Isn't Expecting a Big Pop for Nvidia Stock on Aug. 27. Here's Why Analysts Could Be Wrong.

Key Points

• The consensus 12-month price target for Nvidia reveals that analysts don't expect the stock to move much higher.

• However, Nvidia could give investors reasons to cheer with its fiscal Q2 update.

• 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia ›

The fingernail-biting phase with Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) should now be over. Sure, the chip stock plunged 37% at one point this year. However, it has since rebounded strongly. Nvidia's stock is now up more than 30% year to date.

Could Nvidia's momentum accelerate with a potential catalyst only a few days away? The company reports its fiscal 2026 second-quarter results on Aug. 27. Wall Street doesn't appear to be expecting a big pop for Nvidia. But analysts could be wrong.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

Low expectations?

To be sure, Wall Street is looking for great numbers from Nvidia's fiscal Q2 update. The consensus estimate is for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.01. If Nvidia hits that mark, it will represent year-over-year growth of 48.5%.

The average estimate among analysts for the company's fiscal Q2 revenue is $46 billion. In the same period last year, Nvidia generated revenue of a little over $30 billion. If the company meets Wall Street's projection, its revenue will soar roughly 53.1% year over year.

Those estimates clearly don't reflect low expectations for Nvidia. However, analysts nonetheless don't seem to think the Q2 update will serve as a significant catalyst for the stock. How can we know that? Just look at Wall Street's price targets for Nvidia.

The average price target for the stock is only around 8% higher than the current share price. Keep in mind, though, that this is a 12-month target. If analysts think that Nvidia's share price will be only 8% or so higher a year from now, they're almost certainly not anticipating a big move this week.

Why Nvidia could soar after its Q2 update

Nvidia's stock could still soar after the company reports its fiscal Q2 results, though. One possibility is that Nvidia delivers much higher earnings than expected. This isn't an unlikely event: The GPU maker has easily topped consensus EPS estimates in each of the past four quarters.

Granted, Nvidia's past earnings beats haven't always caused its share price to surge by a jaw-dropping level. For example, the company's adjusted earnings per share were $0.06 higher than the Wall Street consensus in fiscal Q1. Nvidia's stock rose around 3% the next day -- not bad, but not anything to get excited about.

However, surprisingly strong fiscal Q2 results just might be enough to fire up investors. If Nvidia does deliver much better news than expected, it will probably be because of its new Blackwell GPUs. CFO Colette Kress said in the fiscal Q1 earnings call that the Blackwell ramp-up has been "the fastest in our company's history."

I suspect that a more plausible reason Nvidia's stock could take off following its Q2 update is if management gives especially bullish commentary in the earnings call. There have been solid hints from several of Nvidia's major customers in their own recent quarterly updates to support this scenario. Amazon, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, and Meta Platforms discussed increased investments in AI infrastructure, which will probably translate to more demand for Nvidia's chips.

Image source: Getty Images.

Investors could also applaud any positive updates from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on progress toward selling more advanced AI chips to China. Huang recently stated that the company is talking with the U.S. government about this possibility.

Wall Street is probably right about one thing

Will Nvidia's share price pop after the company's fiscal Q2 update? We won't know for sure until later this week. However, I think Wall Street is probably right about one thing: The stock remains a good pick.

Of the 65 analysts surveyed by LSEG in August who cover Nvidia, 58 rated the stock as a "buy" or a "strong buy." Many of these analysts might not look for Nvidia's share price to rise appreciably over the next few days, but they seem to be optimistic about the longer term.

Should you invest $1,000 in Nvidia right now?

Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $649,657!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,090,993!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,057% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of August 18, 2025

Keith Speights has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.