Is Home Depot Stock Ready to Break Out Soon?

Key Points

• Home Depot's Q2 results missed expectations, but the company kept its full-year guidance.

• It's starting to see its same-store sales improve with a big jump in July.

• However, the stock is not cheap, and economic uncertainty remains.

• 10 stocks we like better than Home Depot ›

Home Depot (NYSE: HD) continued to see a recovery when it reported its fiscal second-quarter results. The stock rose on the news, although it's up less than 5% year to date as of this writing.

The company had gone through a long stretch of declining same-store sales, but with three straight quarters of positive U.S. same-store sales growth, it appears to have turned the corner.

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Let's take a closer look at the home improvement retailer's fiscal Q2 report and guidance to see if the stock is poised to break out soon.

Same-store sales turnaround continues

Home Deport's same-store sales declined in its main U.S. market for eight straight quarters beginning with the fiscal 2022 fourth quarter. A pull-forward in demand due to COVID lockdowns and low interest rates continues to hurt home-buying activity and home improvement projects.

While high interest rates and low housing turnover remain headwinds, Home Depot has clearly turned the corner. It saw its U.S. same-store sales rise for the third consecutive quarter with the 1.4% growth in fiscal Q2. Global comparable-store sales, meanwhile, rose 1.0%.

Data source: Home Depot earnings reports. Home Depot's fiscal quarters end approximately one month after standard calendar quarters. Table by author.

The same-store sales growth was led by a 1.4% increase in average ticket size, as the number of transactions fell by 0.4%. Home Depot said it saw a larger mix of higher-ticket items, while increased lumber and copper wire prices also benefited its results.

Big-ticket items, which the company defines as those costing $1,000 or more, were a bright spot, with sales in this category climbing 2.6%. Management called out strength in building materials, lumber, and hardware, but it said there is still softness in larger discretionary projects such as kitchen and bathroom remodels that generally need financing. The company noted that current economic uncertainty is leading to consumers delaying larger projects too.

Overall, 12 of Home Depot's 16 product categories recorded positive same-store sales growth, and 13 out of 16 in the U.S. did. Meanwhile, it said both pros and DIY (do-it-yourself) customers' comparable-store sales rose by similar amounts.

Image source: Getty Images.

Home Depot's total revenue climbed 4.9% year over year to $45.28 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased a penny to $4.68. These results missed the analyst consensus calling for EPS of $4.71 on $45.36 billion in sales, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Looking ahead, Home Depot maintained its full-year guidance for sales to grow 2.8% with a 1.0% increase in same-store sales and 2% decline in adjusted EPS. There should 13 new store openings this year as well.

Can the stock break out?

Things are getting better at Home Depot, and the company continues to see more improvement as the year progresses. Notably, while same-store sales were positive each month of the quarter, the company saw a big jump in July to 3.1% (3.3% in the U.S.). The improvement was also broad-based, with most departments seeing their best comps in about two years.

The latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) projections, which are published by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, help support Home Depot's view of an improving home remodeling market over the next 12 months. There are still headwinds, but the worst now appears to be in the rearview mirror.

Data source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.

Turning to valuation, Home Depot stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 27 times fiscal 2025 analyst estimates. That's on the high end of where it's traded over the past few years. Without much growth and still a lot of economic uncertainty, this valuation seems a bit high. Despite the tough industry environment, the stock has hung in there quite well.

As such, there is a good chance Home Depot stock could remain range-bound, even as it begins to see operational improvements. That would mean no breakout is around the corner for the stock.

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Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Home Depot. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.