US Retail Sales to provide hints on Q4 GDP progress
- The United States Census Bureau will release Retail Sales data for November.
- US Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 0.4% in the month.
- The US Dollar is weak ahead of the announcement, affected by geopolitical turmoil.
The United States (US) Census Bureau will publish November Retail Sales on Wednesday. The delayed data is expected to show that sales rose a modest 0.4% in the month, following no change in October. The report was delayed by the government shutdown, which diminishes its potential impact on the US Dollar (USD). The Retail Sales report is a key indicator of consumer spending and consumer demand, which are major drivers of the US economy.
Retail Sales Control Group, a smoother reading that excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, surged 0.8% in October after an unrevised 0.1% dip in September. The figure is relevant as it corresponds most closely with the consumer spending component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The US economy kick-started the last quarter of 2025 on a strong footing, yet with mounting inflationary pressure that took its toll on consumption, particularly affecting lower and middle-income households.
Market participants do not seem worried about the latest economic developments, as real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.3% in the three months to September, reflecting “increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment,” according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) official report.
But what will happen with the last quarter of 2025? Not only did the government shut down, dragging consumption lower, but also inflation remained stubbornly high. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered modest interest rate cuts and had to deal with US President Donald Trump's anger over the matter.
What to expect from the November US Retail Sales report?
As previously noted, sales are likely to show a modest 0.4% increase, while market players will be paying close attention to the core reading outcome after the 0.8% advance posted in the previous month.
In the meantime, the US published the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The annual inflation rate was reported at 2.7% by the CPI, while the monthly reading was 0.3%, matching expectations. The core annual CPI increased by 2.6% while the monthly advance was 0.2%, slightly below expectations but matching November’s readings. The USD came under modest selling pressure with the news, but given that the data was pretty much in line with expectations, the FX board showed no relevant reaction.
With that in mind, deviations between the actual Retail Sales figure and expectations will be critical for the USD direction. A much weaker than anticipated report could put pressure on the Greenback, while much stronger-than-expected data should boost the American currency.
Still, the reaction is likely to be limited to the near term, as investors maintain their eyes elsewhere: US President Trump has been quite busy at the start of 2026, generating geopolitical noise. Not only did Trump conduct a military operation in Venezuela and capture former President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, but he also escalated threats to annex Greenland, a Danish territory rich in rare earth elements. But it did not end there: early on Tuesday, Trump announced a 25% new tariff on those countries doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
When will US Retail Sales data be released, and how can it affect EUR/USD?
The US December Retail Sales data is due at 13:30 GMT, and as previously stated, the market reaction will be directly linked to the degree of deviation from expectations on the headline and the result of the Retail Sales Control Group reading.
Ahead of the announcement, the EUR/USD pair is trapped between 1.1600 and 1.1700, with the risk skewed to the downside yet without any directional momentum.
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The EUR/USD pair consolidates around 1.1650 and is technically neutral. The bearish case could become stronger if the pair falls through 1.1590, a strong static support level. Bulls, on the contrary, will likely prefer to jump in once the 1.1740 resistance area is cleared. In between, choppy trading is likely to persist by the hands of sentiment.
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jan 14, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 0.4%
Previous: 0%
Source: US Census Bureau
Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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