US Dollar opens week in green ahead of Fed 2024 first move
- The US Dollar continues to trend upwards from late Friday.
- Traders gear up for a very packed week with all eyes on the Fed decision due on Wednesday.
- The US Dollar Index could break down from current levels at around the 200-day SMA.
The US Dollar (USD) edges up on Monday’s European session, in a perfect example of how traders always take into account the sum of all components. The USD seems to be ignoring market bets of a dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) that plans upcoming rate cuts to focus instead on the possibility that . Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a hawkish pause on Wednesday.
On the economic front, some market-moving elements are coming out even before the Fed meeting, namely Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings data for December. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve rate decision and the speech by its Chairman Jerome Powell is due. Traders will need to keep some ammunition for other the main events on Thursday and Friday: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, while Nonfarm Payrolls and the final University of Michigan Sentiment Index will be published on Friday to close off the week.
Daily digest market movers: It’s not all about the Fed
- European Central Bank (ECB) member Luis de Guindos said that the Red Sea situation does not impact the next rate decisions for the ECB, according to Bloomberg. This contradicts comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who said last week during the rate decision meeting that the Red Sea situation could add to inflationary pressures and must be monitored.
- Major Chinese construction group Evergrande has been deemed bankrupt and in default by a Hong Kong court. The ruling came after creditors didn’t reach a restructuring deal.
- Red Sea risk is escalating again after several headlines were issued over the weekend of increasing violence between Houthi rebels and US forces.
- At 15:30 GMT, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for January will be released. The previous number was at -9.3.
- The US Treasury will be placing a 3-month and a 6-month bill near 16:30 GMT.
- Equity markets in Europe are looking for direction even after Asian indices closed in the green earlier this Monday. Japan saw both the Nikkei and the Topix close up nearly 1%. US Futures are flat or mildly in the red.
- The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 97.9% possibility for an unchanged rate decision on Wednesday, with a slim 2.1% chance of a cut.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades near 4.12% and is showing small signs of a breakup in correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY). Although there is some US Dollar strength at hand this Monday, the US bond market is not really following suit.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Pivotal week for DXY
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is still stuck in a tight range between two very important moving averages: the 55-day (103.10) and the 200-day (103.51) Simple Moving Average (SMA). The turn of events and data last week proved not enough to push the US Dollar Index higher. Expect the Fed meeting and the US Jobs Report to be pivotal for the Greenback this week.
In case the DXY is able to run further away from the 200-day SMA, more upside is in the tank. Look for 104.41 as the first resistance level on the upside, in the form of the 100-day SMA. If that gets breached as well, nothing will hold the DXY from heading to either 105.88 or 107.20 – the high of September.
With the repetition of another break above the 200-day SMA, yet again, a bull trap could form once prices start sliding below the same moving average. This would see a long squeeze, with US Dollar bulls being forced to start selling around 103.10 at the 55-day SMA. Once below it, the downturn is open towards 102.00.
US Dollar FAQs
What is the US Dollar?
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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