Arthur Hayes: Can AI IPO Dilution Choke Bank Liquidity and Hit Bitcoin?

Arthur Hayes says share unlocks will dilute SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI stock after listing. That could choke artificial intelligence (AI) credit and shrink the bank balance sheets he credits for crypto’s August rebound.

Hayes argues Bitcoin (BTC) holders feel it through dollar liquidity, with banks, not the Federal Reserve, creating credit. However, he concedes the latest weekly dip in bank balance sheets is a single data point.

Why Do Bank Balance Sheets Link AI Stocks to Crypto?

Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder who runs family office Maelstrom, laid out the thesis in a Nov. 5 newsletter. It follows his earlier balance sheet warning on Bitcoin.

He says banks fund AI through loans, margin financing for stock traders, and purchases for their own books.

Therefore, weaker share prices would raise borrowing costs for the labs, he argues, because debt buyers follow equity signals.

He says SpaceX’s tradable shares have grown 50% since listing while the stock stalled.

Anthropic faces 83% dilution by June 2027 after its planned initial public offering (IPO), he estimates. At a $1.5 trillion valuation, holding the price flat would take roughly $1.245 trillion in new capital, he calculates.

Meanwhile, the company’s amended IPO filing showed a $567 million third-quarter operating loss. Adjusted operating income, which excludes stock-based pay and donation charges, stayed positive at $2.46 billion.

Is Arthur Hayes Early on the AI Bailout Trade?

Hayes expects a credit scare to force central banks to print money, which he sees favoring Bitcoin. He urges patience.

In contrast, Real Vision chief executive Raoul Pal rejects the debt concern. He says hyperscaler debt equals about 3.5% of those companies’ market value.

Still, hyperscalers, the cloud giants building AI data centers, are a different group from the three labs Hayes targets.

The newsletter says Maelstrom advises Genlayer, an AI project preparing a token launch. It also names Flop Network, an unlaunched blockchain for AI compute, as a beneficiary.

Last month, Hayes liquidated roughly $22.28 million in crypto and said he would watch from the sidelines.

Anthropic’s listing will test whether AI financing and crypto liquidity keep drawing on the same banks.