The Last Time Treasury Yields Hit 6%, Bitcoin Didn't Exist — What Happens If They Get There Again?

Bitcoin didn’t exist the last time the US 10-year Treasury yield traded near 6%; that was April, 2000

That was in 2000, roughly eight years before Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin white paper. Now, one veteran market strategist expects rates to get there again.

Yield Could Climb Toward 6.07%

Rick Bensignor, the founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies, told CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime that the 10-year yield could climb toward 6.07%.

That target is up from around 4.78% today. He pointed to a multi-year uptrend line. A 200-week moving average also flagged the recent low near 4%.

Bensignor says the historical range is wide. The 10-year peaked at 15.8% in the early 1980s. It bottomed near 40 basis points at its record low.

That makes 8.11% the halfway point. He doesn’t expect a return to that midpoint. But he says even 5.6% would mark a minimum upside target. Bensignor’s own first mortgage exceeded 7% back in 1987.

He argues today’s borrowers underestimate how high rates can climb.

What Higher Yields Mean for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has never traded through a Treasury market like this. Rising yields typically pull capital toward safer, income-generating assets. They pull money away from speculative ones. That pressures Bitcoin’s debasement trade narrative. The narrative ties BTC’s price to concerns about US debt.

That narrative already faces scrutiny. US federal debt has passed $40 trillion. Yet Bitcoin trades near $80,138, roughly 37% below its record high. If yields grind higher while Bitcoin stays range-bound, the gap could widen. That would deepen the disconnect between debt fears and BTC’s price.

The counterargument is that yields can rise for different reasons. Inflation or fiscal stress could push yields higher without denting Bitcoin’s scarcity pitch. Resilient growth could push yields higher too, while pulling liquidity away from risk assets. Recent bond market turmoil shows how quickly yield spikes can spill into other markets.

Bensignor’s target isn’t a forecast for next week. But the 10-year is climbing toward territory Bitcoin has never operated in. Traders will soon find out whether BTC behaves like digital gold or another rate-sensitive risk asset.