Bitcoin Surges Over 5%, Gold Breaches $4,500 as Waller's Dovish Signal Sparks Market

TradingKey - Waller's dovish signal triggered a surge in Bitcoin and gold prices, with subsequent trends depending on this week's upcoming non-farm payrolls and next week's CPI data.

On September 4, Bitcoin (BTC) prices jumped over 5%, briefly breaking above $82,000, and have currently pulled back to $80,709; meanwhile, spot gold (XAUUSD) prices briefly breached the $4,500 mark and have currently pulled back to $4,473 per ounce.

Gold Price Chart, Source: TradingView

Yesterday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller delivered dovish remarks in a speech, stating that if inflation continues to cool, he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting. As a core figure in the Fed's hawkish camp, Waller's dovish shift directly confirmed the trend of a slowing labor market and stabilizing inflation, prompting the market to heavily bet that the Fed is about to open or expand its rate-cut window.

On September 2, U.S. August ADP employment data unexpectedly disappointed, weakening hawkish expectations and sparking a rebound in Bitcoin and gold prices. Now, as rate-cut expectations heat up, both the U.S. Dollar Index and Treasury yields are under pressure, while capital is rapidly flowing into high-elasticity assets and inflation-hedging tools.

The non-farm payrolls report to be released this Friday (September 4) and next Friday's (September 11) CPI data will determine whether Waller's dovish stance can translate into concrete rate-cut action at the Fed meeting. If the Fed cuts rates, gold prices are expected to challenge the August high of $4,700, with a potential breakout above this resistance level; meanwhile, Bitcoin is highly likely to break through its current resistance level at $83,000 and rally toward the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin Price Chart, Source: TradingView

However, if neither of these two datasets supports a Fed rate cut—or instead reinforces maintaining high interest rates or even raising them—the high-level consolidation in Bitcoin and gold prices will be broken, leading to a downside correction. Gold's defensive line lies near $4,000, while Bitcoin's next support line is around $70,000.