Crypto Bettors Give Democrats 51% Odds to Sweep the Midterms
Cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket now gives Democrats better-than-even odds of sweeping both chambers of Congress in November. Trump’s approval ratings are sliding, and gas prices just hit a fresh record.
The odds have moved fast. A Democratic sweep sat at just 26% a year ago and 45% one month ago.
Democrats Gain Ground as Trump’s Support Slides
Polymarket’s 2026 midterms market, called Balance of Power, puts the odds of a Democratic sweep at 51%. The House looks decided, with Democrats holding 89% odds. The Senate is closer, with Democrats at 51%.
Democrats are favored by Polymarket bettors to sweep the House. Image Source: Polymarket
Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Elections are set for Nov. 3.
Trump’s Approval Rating Drops for A Number of Reasons
The shift tracks Trump’s sliding approval. Some surveys put his support as low as 32% to 34%.
A Financial Times and FocalData poll found most Americans say their finances have worsened under Trump. A majority of independents agreed.
A separate Reuters and Ipsos poll found Democrats now edge out Republicans on the economy. Voters split 37% to 36% in the Democrats’ favor, ending nearly a decade of Republican advantage on the issue.
Rising gas prices are adding to the pressure. The national average hit a record $4.056 a gallon in August.
That breaks the previous high of $3.940, set in 2022. The conflict with Iran keeps energy markets on edge.
Trump has defended the price spikes as a necessary cost of pushing Iran toward denuclearization. He said he would never apologize because he did the right thing.
Trump has also moved to court Venezuelan oil supply. He met with industry executives this week to try to cool prices.
Election Day is two months away. The question now is whether Republicans can reverse the slide, or whether Polymarket’s odds keep drifting toward a Democratic sweep.
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