Why is XRP Failing to Hold $1? Binance Data Holds the Answer

Short positioning against XRP is building on Binance, while whale deposits to the exchange have collapsed to their lowest level in four years.

The combination leaves the market with crowded bearish bets and thinning sell-side supply. 

XRP Open Interest Rebuilds After July Contraction

Binance XRP open interest climbed from roughly $181 million on August 3 to $232.7 million on August 17, according to analyst Amr Taha. This marks a 28.6% increase in two weeks and the highest reading since June 2026.

The rebuild reverses a sharp contraction. Open interest on Binance hit a three-month low in July, and the seven-day change sat near negative $40 million on July 29. That figure has since flipped to a positive $38.9 million.

Direction, however, favors sellers. Binance perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) fell to negative $463.2 million, showing aggressive sell-side execution continued while positions expanded. 

“The combination of rising open interest and declining perpetual CVD is consistent with new bearish positions being added, rather than the move being driven only by existing longs closing,” the analyst said.

Spot markets show the same tilt. All-CEX estimated spot CVD swung from about positive $153 million on August 3 to negative $231.8 million, a shift of nearly $385 million toward net selling.

“This combination suggests that bearish positioning has strengthened across multiple layers of the market,” Taha added.

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Whale Deposits Collapse as Sentiment Bottoms

The supply feeding the selling is nevertheless thinning. Binance whale inflows dropped to $61 million on a three-month average, their lowest level since 2021, according to analyst Darkfost.

For comparison, those inflows reached $456 million in January 2025 and $355 million in October. Netflows remain positive at roughly $18.8 million, meaning deposits still outweigh withdrawals.

“This is a pattern we’re seeing across the entire market where inflows and volumes are declining, pointing to a form of sell-side exhaustion, while demand hasn’t yet picked up the slack,” Darkfost said.

Sentiment has meanwhile reached an extreme. Analytics firm Santiment recorded crowd commentary at a three-month bearish peak across X, Reddit, and Telegram. On-chain activity moved the opposite way, with 49,929 active addresses in a single 24-hour span, the highest in over two months.

“With on-chain activity high, this is the counter-signal bulls want to see. Fear is loud. Participation is rising. If XRP holds structure and demand returns, today’s negativity could become tomorrow’s discounted entry narrative,” Santiment noted.

The opposite signals arrive as XRP struggles to hold the $1 level. At press time, the altcoin traded at $0.998, down 0.4% on the day

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