US and China Led $20 Billion World Cup Prediction Market Boom, Chainalysis Says

The 2026 FIFA World Cup generated $20 billion in prediction market volume, with the US and China contributing the largest country-level flows, according to new Chainalysis research published Thursday.

More than 400,000 wallets placed on-chain bets on the tournament. World Cup markets accounted for roughly 63% of all prediction market activity during the event.

World Cup Betting Volumes Peaked at the Final

Chainalysis tracked World Cup betting from January 2026. Markets were already producing nearly $50 million in daily volume months before kickoff. Daily activity jumped to around $250 million once the tournament opened on June 11.

The final, in which Spain defeated Argentina, drove over $300 million in wagers. Novelty markets also attracted heavy flows. A single market asked whether Cristiano Ronaldo would cry after his last campaign, generating $49 million.

Bettors fared unusually well. Chainalysis found 55% of participants ended the tournament in profit, and 79% of those winners were experienced prediction market users.

The report mapped tournament betting flows by country between June 11 and July 19. The heatmap shows that the US and China generated the highest attributable volumes worldwide.

Canada, Thailand, and the UK also ranked among the top contributors. Australia, Brazil, Russia, and India also saw heavy activity, while much of Africa showed little or no attributable volume.

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Sanctioned Exchange Funds Reached Betting Wallets

Not all the money was “clean.” Chainalysis identified roughly 3,700 wallets, under 1% of bettors, with illicit transaction histories.

The largest single source was Huobi/HTX, which sent at least $5.4 million into World Cup betting wallets. The UK sanctioned the exchange in May over alleged Russian sanctions evasion, and the EU followed in July. Scam-linked wallets added around $2 million.

Meanwhile, FIFA’s own on-chain experiment stayed largely clean. Chainalysis identified a key FIFA Collect wallet on Avalanche that received $24 million from NFT collectors between May 2025 and the tournament’s end. 

The firm said that strict identity checks may explain the negligible level of illicit exposure. On-chain flows indicate FIFA collected at least $6 million from secondary sales.

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