BTC switches to high correlation, risk-on mode with Nasdaq ahead of earnings season

BTC is once again behaving as a tech stock, with a risk-on trading. In the coming week, BTC may be affected by the Q1 reports of leading tech companies. 

BTC prices have increased their correlation to the Nasdaq 100 index in the past 30 days. The past and upcoming tech stock reports for Q1 may become a key mover of BTC prices in the weeks ahead. Earnings season may stretch up to May 20, when Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) will announce its earnings. 

Tech stocks will show their resilience against the AI narrative, which threatens to take over traditional tech markets. 

Will BTC trade as a tech stock? 

In the past month, BTC closely tracked the Nasdaq 100, with an almost perfect correlation. Only the inherent volatility of crypto trading broke the trend on certain days. 

In the first quarter of 2025, BTC broke down the narrative that it behaved as digital gold. Instead, BTC sharply reacted to geopolitical uncertainty and mostly sided with the stock market. 

As of April 28, BTC traded at $76,747.43 after rejecting the $79,000 resistance level. The coming week may attempt to revive the asset and push the price closer to the $80,000 range. 

During the latest price cycle, BTC broke its correlation to equities, especially after the October 2025 crash. In the past month, the correlation seems to be returning, as both equities and BTC reacted in a similar way to the news of the war in Iran. 

Crypto has lagged behind the all-time highs set by the stock market, but has not entirely lost its appeal as a risk-on asset. 

BTC tries to shake off a difficult Q1

BTC was down by over 22% in Q1, still pressured by the liquidation crash in late 2025. The first quarter of 2026 was unique in Bitcoin’s history, as the leading asset closed both January and February in the red for the first time in its trading history. 

Most of Q1 for BTC was spent in the ‘extreme fear’ zone, and the asset still trades with a fearful sentiment. The index recovered to around 33 points, still indicating fear.

BTC still saw accumulation from whales and near-peak buying from Strategy and other treasury companies. Despite this, crypto as a whole retains a relatively subdued sentiment until new liquidity finds its way into BTC. 

As Cryptopolitan reported, BTC also showed a trend of shifting from retail to a new wave of long-term holders. In the short term, BTC price moves are still set up by the derivatives market. The recent liquidation heatmap showed BTC was easily swayed to liquidate long positions or have a short-term rally due to a short squeeze.

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