HODL waves show redistribution from multi-year bitcoin holders

There may be a smaller percentage of lost BTC than previously anticipated. Older wallets have been reawakening, leading to corrections in the number of coins presumably lost. 

Lost BTC is discovered after years of holding, as 2025 was one of the years with peak shifts from old wallets. There are multiple reasons for this change in holding structure, from plain cashing out to wallet restructuring. One of the triggers was a hike above the $100K level, meaning even random buyers could sit on a life-changing amount. 

The move of BTC to new all-time highs reawakened multiple sources of BTC, from old miner wallets to Casascius coins. Based on HODL waves, distribution came from wallets aged 3-5 years, while more of the supply moved to the 7-10 year cohort.

Old BTC holders recovered coins considered lost

As more wallets were tracked and labeled, there were fewer signs of coins lost beyond reach. Some cold wallets moved their coins due to custody restructuring, shifting to new types of addresses, or general consolidation of wallets. 

The other source of previously idle coins came from forgotten wallets, abandoned multisig wallets, custodian holdings, estates, and inheritances. Old miner wallets also moved coins, as well as OG whales, former exchange founders, and other early adopters. 

One of the reasons for moving coins was a dust attack with attached messages, warning about proof of ownership. While coins cannot be taken even from idle wallets, some users moved their holdings to a new, harder-to-trace address. Security and confidentiality were also a concern, as transparent addresses could encourage both digital and physical attacks. 

The dormant BTC does not even include the unlocking of the Mount Gox coins, which are still held by the liquidator. 

More coins move to older cohorts

Following a record year of BTC distribution from old whale wallets, there was a total of 3,410,435.74 lost BTC that were idle for over a decade. Those include the early miner reserves and the blocks mined by Satoshi Nakamoto, all of which remain unspent. 

A total of 6,214,870.73 BTC have been idle since 2020, creating a sizeable cohort of relatively new buyers that are still holding. Older cohorts show occasional movements, which are tracked across wallets. For newer wallets, the reserves move more actively, with a smaller number of coins sitting idle for over 12 months. Newer buyers rely on active trading, instead of holding through price drawdowns. 

The idle coins did not reawaken from ETF demand, which relied on OTC desks and specific trading venues, suggested Alphractal analyst Joao Wedson.

During the latest market cycles, older whales showed silent distribution, with no signs of capitulation. Some of the older holdings may have fueled the creation of treasuries. 

Long-term holding also raises the issue of BTC price strength. After losing the all-time high, some of the holders realized losses. For long-term wallets, however, the losses may be smaller, especially for coins previously considered lost.

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