Prediction Markets Signal BlackRock Executive as Trump’s Likely Fed Chair

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will see his term end in May of this year. However, prediction market users are already placing their bets on who US President Donald Trump will pick as his replacement.

Thought to be Kevin Hassett at one point, momentum has now shifted towards BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder.

Markets Read Trump’s Davos Signals

Rieder is currently polling strongly on prediction platforms. Markets on both Polymarket and Kalshi give him a 45% chance of securing the nomination, ranking him above other candidates such as Fed Governor Christopher Waller and former Fed official Kevin Warsh. 

At first glance, this may seem like an unremarkable bet, given the Trump administration’s long history of signaling potential Fed picks. However, in a recent CNBC interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump referred to the BlackRock executive as “very impressive.”

“I’d say we’re down to three, but we’re down to two. And I can probably tell you, we’re down to maybe one, in my mind,” Trump said.

Speculation indicated that Rieder is the favorite. 

According to Bloomberg, Rieder stands out from other contenders for several reasons. Unlike Waller or Warsh, he has never worked at the Federal Reserve and is therefore seen as less tied to the institution. Rieder has also signaled a willingness to implement changes at the Fed.

However, it wouldn’t be the first time Trump said he had made up his mind over a candidate.  

Why Hassett Fell Out Of Favor

A month ago, Hassett emerged as the leading rumored choice to replace Powell. 

As director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), he consistently expressed dovish views on interest rates, aligning his economic outlook closely with Trump’s agenda.

Given that alignment, Trump initially strongly supported Hassett as a potential Fed Chair. However, less than two weeks ago, he reversed course, signaling a preference to keep Hassett at the helm of the NEC. 

According to Polymarket, Hassett’s odds of being selected have since fallen to 8%.

Regardless of who ultimately replaces Powell, Trump has made clear that he wants interest rates to move lower. If that happens, crypto markets could feel the shift fastest.

What Fed Rate Cuts Mean For Crypto

Lower interest rates typically mean greater liquidity. For consumers, this translates into cheaper credit and, in many cases, a higher appetite for risk.

If the Federal Reserve, under new leadership, continues to cut interest rates, Bitcoin and Ethereum could benefit from renewed upside.

However, the conditions under which rates are cut are crucial. 

In recent months, the Trump administration has repeatedly challenged the Federal Reserve’s independence, prompting negative reactions in bond markets and spreading volatility into crypto.

If Trump continues to apply such pressure on the next Fed Chair, the outlook for the crypto market may deteriorate.