Monero Holds $500, But Rising Risk Emerges as Traders Pull Back

Monero has entered a volatile phase after retreating from a newly set all-time high. XMR price pulled back sharply, triggering mixed reactions across the market. 

While the asset has stabilized above the $500 level, downside risks remain elevated. Technical and derivatives data suggest caution despite short-term price resilience.

Monero Traders Are Pulling Back

Derivatives data show waning trader conviction. Monero’s open interest dropped nearly 20% over the past 72 hours, falling from $272 million to $217 million. This reduction indicates traders are closing positions rather than adding exposure, reflecting rising uncertainty about near-term price direction.

Interestingly, the funding rate has remained positive despite the exit of leveraged traders. A positive funding rate suggests long positions still dominate shorts. This imbalance implies traders expect a rebound, yet the reduction in open interest shows they are unwilling to maintain risk during heightened volatility.

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Long XMR Traders Under Threat

The liquidation map highlights significant downside risk below current levels. Long positions hold greater exposure than shorts, increasing vulnerability if the price weakens. Even a modest decline below the $500 support could trigger forced liquidations, amplifying selling pressure.

Data shows that a 3% drop below $489 could liquidate approximately $3.62 million in long positions. Such a move would likely accelerate losses as cascading liquidations unfold. This setup suggests XMR remains susceptible to sharp downside moves despite its current stabilization.

On-chain flow indicators reinforce this cautious outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow has recorded a sharp downtick over the past several days. CMF measures capital inflows and outflows using price and volume, offering insight into investor behavior.

The indicator slipping below the zero line signals that outflows are now dominating Monero. This shift shows investors are reducing exposure rather than accumulating. Sustained negative CMF often precedes continued price weakness, especially when combined with fragile derivatives positioning.

XMR Price Could Lose Its Support

Monero trades near $524 at the time of writing, holding above the psychologically important $500 support. This level has acted as a key defense zone, attracting buyers during recent pullbacks. Maintaining it remains critical for preventing deeper losses.

The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement sits near $503, often referred to as a bear market support floor. Staying above this zone has so far limited downside. However, rising liquidation risk and weakening inflows suggest a break remains possible. A decisive drop below $500 could push XMR toward $450.

A bullish reversal cannot be ruled out. If positive funding and trader optimism overpower selling pressure, XMR could regain momentum. Under that scenario, Monero price may advance toward the $560 resistance. A sustained breakout could extend gains toward $606, invalidating the bearish thesis.