Brazil maintains 15% rate as inflation persists

Brazil’s central bank kept its key interest rate steady at a near two-decade high, signaling its continued commitment to combating persistent inflation. 

Led by Gabriel Galipolo, the board held the benchmark Selic rate at 15% for the third consecutive meeting, in line with forecasts from all economists surveyed by Bloomberg. 

The central bank had previously lifted borrowing costs by a total of 4.5 percentage points between September of last year and June.

Inflation shows signs of easing, but challenges remain

The central bank is making gradual progress in taming prices in Latin America’s largest economy, but inflation is expected to stay above the 3% target through 2028. Record-low levels of unemployment and mounting concerns about Brazil’s shaky public finances are clouding the outlook, forcing policymakers to remain vigilant.

The central bank is slowly curbing inflation in Latin America’s largest economy, but prices are projected to remain above the 3% target through 2028. With unemployment at record lows and growing worries over Brazil’s fragile public finances, policymakers are staying cautious.

Mario Mesquita, chief economist at Itaú Unibanco Holding SA, wrote in a research note before the meeting that the decision shows “the combination of a cautious stance in the face of a still uncertain external environment and the assessment that the lagged effects of monetary policy are still unfolding.” 

High interest rates are dampening economic activity while supporting the Brazilian real. Consumer prices have eased in recent weeks, with Brazilians benefiting from lower food costs.

Still, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is advancing social spending ahead of next year’s general election. The outlays have investors fretting over the path and sustainability of the government’s debt load despite government promises to run a primary fiscal surplus, which excludes interest payments.

Brazil’s inflation edges up in September despite falling food prices

Latin America’s largest economy’s inflation had initially resumed growth in September, despite the continuous easing in food prices, according to data from the statistics agency IBGE.

Consumer prices in Brazil rose 0.48% in September, up from a 0.11% drop in August, the agency said. The result came in slightly below the 0.52% expansion forecast by economists in a poll.

The food and beverage group, the largest component in the inflation basket, decreased by 0.26% in September, marking the fourth consecutive decline, according to the IBGE.

“The household food group continues to show negative variations, given the greater supply of products,” IBGE research manager Fernando Goncalves said in a statement.

Consumer prices rose 5.17% year-on-year (YoY) in September, up from 5.13% YoY in August. Brazil’s central bank targets an inflation rate of 3%, with a tolerance band of 1.5 percentage points in either direction.

“The overall picture remains benign. September’s mild rebound mainly reflects base effects, while forward-looking indicators point to continued disinflation in the months ahead,” Pantheon Macroeconomics’ chief Latin America economist Andres Abadia said.

In its latest monetary policy decision in September, the central bank held interest rates steady at 15%, the highest in almost 20 years. It signaled that it would keep them unchanged for an extended period.

With inflation showing signs of easing but still above target, Brazil’s central bank is signaling that high interest rates are here to stay. Policymakers remain cautious, balancing the need to tame prices with the pressures of record-low unemployment and mounting fiscal risks, as the country heads into an election year.

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