Canadian Dollar rises on oil rebound, Middle East de-escalation hopes
- USD/CAD depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar gains on the oil prices rebound.
- Emirati officials seek UNSC approval for a multinational military action to restore Strait navigation, potentially using force.
- The US Dollar weakens as Trump indicated that the US will withdraw from Iran conflict within two to three weeks.
USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive trading day, hovering around 1.3910 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rebounds after registering over 4% losses in the previous day, trading around $98.60 per barrel at the time of writing. Oil prices rebound as the Emirati officials are lobbying for a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution to authorize a multinational military mission to restore navigation in the strait, elevating risks of broader regional escalation.
The UAE is also urging the United States (US) and allied nations across Europe and Asia to form a coalition to clear mines, escort commercial vessels, and, if required, secure strategic positions along the waterway.
The USD/CAD pair also weakens as the US Dollar (USD) softens, weighed down by improving risk appetite amid rising hopes for Middle East peace. US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the United States (US) would be “leaving very soon” from the Iran war, noting that a withdrawal could take place within two to three weeks.
Trump further emphasized that a formal agreement with Tehran is not a necessary condition for ending hostilities. On the Iranian side, President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed a willingness to de-escalate regional tensions if specific guarantees are met.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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