New uncertainty in the Middle East after the fall of the Assad regime causes oil prices to rise – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
Oil prices rose significantly at the start of the week, making up for Friday's losses, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
A higher risk premium on the oil price seems justified
“Prices were driven up by news from China, which led to a brightening of demand prospects. In addition, there is new uncertainty in the Middle East after the Assad regime in Syria, which has been ruling for decades, was toppled at the weekend and it is still unclear who will fill the resulting power vacuum.”
“This obviously also brings back memories of the fall of the long-term rulers in Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011, whereupon both countries plunged into chaos. In contrast to these two countries, Syria is not a significant oil producer, but due to its geographical location in the Middle East it is of great importance for the stability of the region.”
“A higher risk premium on the oil price is therefore justified. On a positive note, Iran could lose influence in the region due to the loss of its ally Assad.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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