Oil: Gloomy demand outlook dominates geopolitical uncertainty – ABN AMRO

OPEC retains its plan to revive production starting October. Chinese lower than expected demand in the second half of 2024 have put downward pressures on prices. However, the geopolitical premium following the resurgence of tensions in the Middle-East is keeping prices in check. Our outlook for Brent is to average 85 $/b in Q3 and Q4 as the economic recovery in main markets takes more time to gain momentum, ABN AMRO senior energy economist Moutaz Altaghlibi notes.

OPEC may revisit plans to revive production in September

“Brent prices averaged 83.9 $/b in July after the short lived recovery in June reversed as the market priced-in several development such as the potential revive of production by OPEC in October, the lower expected demand from China for the second half of 2024, and the higher supply by non-OPEC producers. Brent prices are currently trading around 76 $/b.”

“From the supply side, as communicated in our last update, OPEC announced a phasing out of their voluntary cuts over one year starting in October 2024. The cartel emphasized that the increase in production is subject to market conditions. From the demand side, there are no signs of strong recovery from main markets yet. Data on crude demand from China in the first half of the year was lower than expected.”

“If the Middle-East tensions subdued in the coming days/weeks, we think that cc to maintain prices above 80 $/b. We retain our outlook for Brent for the third quarter of 2024 to average 85 $/b. However, we revisit our end of year price downward from 90 to 85 $/b as the expected recovery in economic activity in main markets moves towards 2025.”