Gold rallies as Iran sanctions stoke haven demand
- Gold clears the 200-day SMA, opening the door to further gains.
- Bessent sanctions Iran-linked networks, boosting haven demand for bullion.
- Jackson Hole, GDP and Core PCE guide the next catalyst.
Gold (XAU/USD) price resumes its advance on Monday and refreshes three-month highs at $4,681 as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent crosses the wires to reveal sanctions on Iran-linked entities, while investors await a speech by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,631, up 0.62%.
XAU/USD rises as Bessent sanctions and lower yields support bullion
Bullion has turned bullish after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,516 last Friday, opening the door to further upside. Nevertheless, from a market-structure perspective, it is neutral to upward-biased until XAU clears the May 7 high at $4,764.
The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, announced “unprecedented” economic measures against Iran, saying they’re focusing on Tehran’s “most vital lifelines,” which include digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. According to the Treasury, it sanctioned nearly 60 entities linked to Iran, including a network of broker companies and shadow fleet vessels across the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland, and Europe.
The economic operation is called 'Outcast,' and Bessent said the actions aim to block every potential source of revenue funding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Bessent added that US President Donald Trump is calling world leaders to cut economic ties with Iran.
Recent developments in the Middle East have increased Gold’s appeal as a haven. The World Gold Council (WGC) showed that bullion ETFs attracted inflows of 46.7 million tons, worth $6.4 billion, last week, the largest jump in 10 months, sparked by North American and European-listed funds.
US Treasury yields edged lower as Bessent crossed the wires, with the 10-year T-note yield falling by 3.5 basis points to 4.700%, a tailwind for the yellow metal. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck against six currencies, is up 0.22% at 99.05, with buyers reclaiming the 99.00 figure after hitting three-month lows.
Traders are focused on the release of US growth, inflation and jobs data, as well as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s rally extends, the next target is $4,700
Price action shows that Gold reclaimed the May 29 high of $4,595, paving the way to conquer $4,600. Momentum remains bullish, entering its strongest phase as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pierced the 70 overbought level. Although most traders see it as a potential sign of a reversal, during a strong uptrend, the RSI can turn overbought above the 80-85 level. In this case, the potential for a reversal increases, so XAU is poised to extend its gains.
The first resistance for XAU/USD is $4,700. Above is the May 7 swing high of $4,764, ahead of testing $4,800. A breach of the latter clears the way back to $5,000.
For a bearish resumption, sellers must drive the XAU price to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,516. The next stop below is $4,500, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,379.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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