Oil: Headline-driven gains with Hormuz risk premium – ING

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI have rebounded after three sessions of losses as renewed US‑Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz lift the risk premium. They highlight constrained flows through the key shipping chokepoint and see Oil prices remaining highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines in coming sessions.

Crude supported by Hormuz disruptions

"ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moved higher on Friday morning after three straight sessions of losses, amid reports of renewed clashes between US and Iranian forces. Brent rose nearly 3% to just below USD 103/bbl. The rebound followed US strikes on Iranian military targets after Iran fired on three US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz."

"In Singapore, inventories fell by 1.1mbbl to 44.8mbbl, the lowest level since July 2025, as US-Iran tensions curtailed Middle Eastern exports. The decline was driven by middle distillates (‑0.8mbbl) and light distillates (‑0.6mbbl). Residual fuel stocks, however, increased by 387kbbl to 19.9mbbl."

"While tensions have escalated, the US has signalled no immediate intent to intensify the conflict and is reportedly still awaiting Iran’s response to a proposal to reopen the trade route."

"Looking ahead, oil prices are likely to remain highly headline‑driven, with the recent escalation reinforcing the risk premium. With flows through the Strait of Hormuz unlikely to normalise quickly, markets remain exposed to further upside on any setbacks in diplomatic efforts."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)