Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises to near $4,450 amid Venezuela turmoil
- Gold price climbs to near $4,440 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Geopolitical flashpoints and the Fed’s monetary easing cycle support the Gold price.
- The US employment report for December will be in the spotlight on Friday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to around $4,440 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends its rally and hits a one-week high amid safe-haven demand, as the Venezuela crisis injects geopolitical uncertainty. Traders will closely monitor the key US economic data later on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), for more clues on the monetary policy outlook.
Tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated to a new level following the US Army's Delta Force's attack on Venezuela and the capture of its President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on Saturday. On Monday, Maduro pleaded not guilty to US charges in a narco-terrorism case against him, kicking off an extraordinary legal battle with major geopolitical ramifications, per Bloomberg. Heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in this region fuel traditional safe-haven assets like Gold.
“The situation around Venezuela has clearly reactivated safe-haven demand, but it comes on top of existing concerns about geopolitics, energy supply and monetary policy,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany.
Dovish expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) contribute to the upside of the yellow metal. The recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed that most Fed officials saw further interest-rate reductions as appropriate so long as inflation declines over time, though they remained divided over when and how far to cut. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
All eyes will be on the US December employment report on Friday. The US economy is expected to see 55,000 job additions in December, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to tick lower to 4.5% during the same period. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could support the US Dollar (USD) and undermine the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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