DXY and EUR/USD are pretty stuck in ranges – Societe Generale
Source Fxstreet
Today’s BoJ rate hike is a step on the road to normalization, consistent with a less oversold Japanese Yen (JPY). The Dollar Index (DXY) seeing its biggest two-week since August, is consistent with the recent phase of dollar strength losing momentum. But range-trading is more likely than a significant downtrend, for now, Societe Genrale’s FX expert Kit Juckes notes.
USD is up against the GBP, down against the rest
“The third full week of 2025 is ending and so far, the pound is the weakest of the G10 currencies while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are fighting it out for top place. The USD is up against the pound, down against the rest, and the DXY is set to fall for a second week in a row for the first time since the latest rally kicked off at the end of September.”
“It’s the biggest two-week fall since August and the before that, the biggest since 2023. Finally, this fall has also helped move the Dollar Index loser to where relative rates might suggest it should be – current ‘fair value’ on that basis is around 104.5.”
“DXY and EUR/USD are pretty stuck in ranges, which I’ll define as 99 to 110 for the DXY, consistent with EUR/USD in a 1-1.12 range, until something changes dramatically. Indeed, a lot has to change before we get back to EUR/USD 1.10. This morning’s marginally better PMIs were welcome, but don’t count as a game-changer.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
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