EUR/SEK: Target set at 11.60 in 6-12 months – Danske Bank

Last year ended on a strong note for the Swedish Krona (SEK). Economists at Danske Bank analyze EUR/SEK outlook.

Global macro cycle does not bode well for the SEK in 2024

The cyclical backdrop remains a headwind for the SEK amid subpar and even recession-like European growth outlook. 

The Riksbank will not lag the ECB in the easing cycle, which leaves the SEK in a vulnerable position. Repricing of central banks may hurt risk sentiment. 

The structural flows picture is still a medium-term headwind for the SEK. 

Should the global economy pick up more than expected in 2024, this could lend support to the SEK over the medium term.

Forecast 11.20 (1M), 11.40 (3M), 11.60 (6M), 11.60 (12M)