New Zealand Dollar remains subdued following PBoC policy decision
- NZD/USD remained subdued following the PBOC's decision to hold its Loan Prime Rates steady on Monday.
- New Zealand’s June Trade Surplus narrowed sharply to NZD 0.02 billion, down from 0.16 billion last year, missing expectations.
- The US-Iran interim peace deal collapsed following deadly exchanges, sparking fears of a prolonged regional conflict.
NZD/USD remains in negative territory for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5840 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair holds losses as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains subdued after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. It is important to note that New Zealand and China are close trading partners, so any change in the Chinese economy could impact the kiwi dollar.
New Zealand’s Trade Surplus narrowed sharply to NZD 0.02 billion in June, down from NZD 0.16 billion a year earlier and falling well short of market expectations of NZD 0.25 billion. Marking the smallest surplus since February's deficit, the decline was driven by import growth outpacing export gains.
Exports grew by 24.8% year-on-year to NZD 8.09 billion, accelerating from a downwardly revised 15.1% increase in May. However, imports surged even faster, jumping 27.8% year-on-year to NZD 8.07 billion, up from a 25.9% rise the previous month.
The NZD/USD pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from safe-haven demand amid escalating hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran, raising fears of further disruptions to vital oil flows from the Middle East.
The US has launched its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. In response, Iranian officials declared that the ceasefire between the two nations has been effectively abandoned, opening the door for deepening disruptions to crucial energy pathways through the region's narrow waterways.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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