Eurozone: Downside risks for industry grow after war shock – ING

ING’s Bert Colijn notes that Eurozone industrial production rose just 0.4% in February versus January, leaving output below most of 2025 levels. He highlights that higher energy prices and the Middle East war are set to weigh further on energy‑intensive industry and investment.

War and energy costs threaten production outlook

"Eurozone industry has been very resilient throughout 2025 despite significant trade turmoil. But the start of 2026 has not been encouraging. As front-loading by American businesses has eased, production levels have dropped again. And while manufacturers have become more optimistic on infrastructure and defence investment promises, the Middle East war has dashed hopes of a broad-based rebound. Energy-intensive industries, in particular, are set to suffer from higher prices."

"Eurozone production ticked up in February, but by just 0.4% compared to January. That leaves production levels below most of 2025. And the surge in energy prices has put further pressure on energy-intensive industry as of March. Don’t expect a rebound soon."

"With the war in the Middle East starting in March, expect more downward pressure on production to come through. Energy-intensive industry will see its competitiveness come under renewed pressure, and uncertainty could feed through to investment decisions. While other – mainly high-tech – sectors could continue to perform very well, we do note that downside risks for production have increased."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)