NZD/USD falls for fourth day as Middle East war, weak NZ confidence weigh

• NZD/USD posts a fourth consecutive daily decline as geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment.
• Consumer confidence in New Zealand drops sharply, reflecting uncertainty linked to the Middle East war.
• Monetary policy expectations shift as central banks monitor the inflation impact of energy prices.

NZD/USD falls for the fourth consecutive day and trades around 0.5750 on Friday, down 0.17% on the day at the time of writing, pressured by renewed risk aversion and the resilience of the US Dollar (USD).

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds from a tense global backdrop marked by escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily pause planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for ten days provides only limited relief, as markets remain concerned about the lack of a clear path toward de-escalation. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran adds to these concerns, supporting energy prices and fueling inflation fears.

In this environment, the US Dollar maintains a bullish bias, supported by its safe-haven status. Higher US yields, with the 10-year Treasury hovering near 4.45%, are also reinforcing the USD’s appeal.

US economic data paints a mixed picture. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 53.3 in March from 55.5 previously, signaling growing pessimism among households. At the same time, one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.8%, highlighting persistent concerns about inflationary pressures.

Officials from the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintain a cautious tone. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that higher energy prices should have only a modest impact on inflation, although a prolonged shock could prove more significant. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michael Barr warned that another price shock could lift inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for policymakers to carefully assess economic conditions before adjusting policy.

In New Zealand, household confidence deteriorated significantly. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 91.3 in March from 100.1 in February, reflecting the impact of geopolitical uncertainty. The decline weighs on the country’s economic outlook and complicates the policy path for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Governor Anna Breman noted that the central bank may look through temporary energy-driven inflation but stands ready to raise interest rates if persistent pressures risk unanchoring inflation expectations. Since the conflict began, markets have increasingly priced in the possibility of earlier tightening.

Overall, the combination of a firm US Dollar, rising Treasury yields and deteriorating global sentiment continues to pressure the Kiwi.