NZD/USD: RBNZ risk but pressure to persist – HSBC

HSBC Global Research expects New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to stay under pressure versus USD in coming weeks, even as markets price further Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) tightening over 12 months. The 8 April RBNZ meeting is expected to leave rates at 2.25%, with higher Oil and gas prices lifting local yields. Unless the RBNZ surprises hawkishly, NZD/USD is seen remaining weak.

RBNZ outlook and Oil drive Kiwi

"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will meet on 8 April, and markets expect the policy rate to hold at 2.25% (Bloomberg, 25 March 2026)."

"However, the yield curve now reflects additional expected RBNZ hikes over the next 12 months, driven by higher oil and gas prices linked to the Middle East conflict."

"New Zealand rates have risen relative to Australian rates, supporting NZD strength vs AUD."

"Unless the RBNZ delivers an unexpectedly hawkish outcome, the NZD is likely to remain under pressure in the coming weeks."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)